I had intended on taking Sunday off from the NRFIs this week, but after a losing day on Saturday, let's get right back on the horse. Saturday's 1-2 record dropped us to 35-17 for a 35% ROI on the season, so let's see if we can bump that back up a bit.
Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks and Sunday model predictions for April 14.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Sunday Model Predictions (April 14)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Pirates vs. Phillies (NRFI -106 at FanDuel | Play to -120): The low-juice line here is thanks to the nine-run total, but I still like the no runs side of this game. Both pitchers finished 2023 with first time through the order xFIP numbers of 3.01 or below, suggesting that the runs are more likely to come later into their start.
Yankees vs. Guardians (YRFI -113 at FanDuel | Play to -130): This is another game with a nine-run total, but this one features the stacked Yankees lineup taking on southpaw Logan Allen. Allen's not bad, but the top of the Yankees lineup is all hitters with excellent splits against lefties, except Juan Soto — who hits everyone well.
Astros vs. Rangers (YRFI -113 at FanDuel | Play to -130): We've cashed this YRFI two days in a row, and it feels like we're playing with house money a bit at this point. Just like the last two days, we have a game with two top-five offenses in baseball, and both teams are especially strong at the top of the order. Let's make it three for three on the YRFI on Sunday between the Astros and Rangers.
