We took a slight loss on MLB NRFI picks on Monday, paying the juice on a 2-2 day. It wasn't the result I was hoping for after hitting both early game picks, but it's one we can certainly live with.
We've got three more NRFI picks on Tuesday to hopefully get back to our winning ways. I'm targeting the following games: Yankees vs Blue Jays, Guardians vs Red Sox and Reds vs Mariners.
Let's get to my MLB NRFI Picks: Tuesday Odds & Model Predictions (April 16).
MLB NRFI Picks: Tuesday Odds & Model Predictions
For all of the bets below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays (YRFI): With their typical lineup featuring two of the best hitters in baseball — Aaron Judge and Juan Soto — in their top three, I like targeting the Yankees for YRFIs.
That's especially true when Carlos Rodon is pitching on their side — he has an xFIP of 4.53 his first time through the order this season, giving both teams solid odds to score early here.
Guardians vs. Red Sox (YRFI): I was very surprised to see such a low price on the YRFI in a game with a nine-run total — especially considering both lineups are fairly front-loaded with quality bats.
Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has been very good both early in games and overall, but all of his leading indicators (xFIP, SIERA, etc.) suggest he's due for some regression as well.
Reds vs. Mariners (NRFI): We're lucky that ESPN Bet is offering a slightly off-market line here because this is an excellent NRFI game. There's a seven-run total, plus one of my favorite NRFI pitchers in Hunter Greene.
The hard-throwing righty boasts an overall ERA of 4.86 this season, but that mark drops to 2.84 his first time through the order with similar splits throughout his young career.
