Tuesday was another strong day for the model, producing a 4-1 result. We're now 17-6 on published picks for a return of over 11 units to start 2024.
Let's get back after it Wednesday, with five more picks (counting a half-unit play) on a busy day of baseball.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks in Wednesday's model predictions for April 3.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Tuesday Model Predictions (April 3)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Wednesday, April 3
Miami Marlins Team-Specific (YRFI): Miami is favored in a game with an 8.5-run total, and taking on a starter in Patrick Sandoval who's been worse the first time through the order than overall. The full-game YRFI is probably fine here too, but without enough data to project Marlins starter AJ Puk, I prefer risking a half-unit on the Marlins-only line.
Phillies vs. Reds (NRFI): With a 7.5-run total and two starters who do their best work early, this is a perfect setup for the NRFI. I expected to pay a lot more juice than we actually have to, making this an especially strong play.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks (YRFI): The Yankees' extremely top-heavy lineup means they'll be a frequent YRFI target this season. It paid off for us yesterday — even though Arizona was the team that came through — and we're taking it again tonight.
Both teams are roughly equally likely to score here, as Yankees starter Carlos Rodon typically struggles at the start of games, as he owned a 6.14 xFIP his first time through the order in 2023.
Cardinals vs. Padres (NRFI): This game has a fairly high total, but both starters come out of the gates strong, and neither offense is especially top-heavy. The somewhat high total also means better lines on the NRFI.
Pirates vs. Nationals (NRFI): Similar to the above game, the total is on the high side for an NRFI pick, but both pitchers have very strong splits the first time through the order. That's enough considering the relatively low juice on the "no runs" side of the bet.
