I went 1-1 on MLB NRFI picks for Labor Day, with a frustrating two-out home run in the bottom of the first standing between us and a profitable day. Let's hope for some breaks in the other direction for the Tuesday MLB slate.
I have two MLB NRFI predictions for Tuesday, September, 3, featuring picks for Rockies vs Braves and Pirates vs Cubs.
MLB NRFI Picks, Predictions & Odds for Tuesday, September 3
Billy Ward's Rockies vs Braves First Inning ML Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Chris Sale
I'm actually projecting a slight value on the traditional YRFI in this game, but that's driven almost entirely by the Braves. The Rockies are a bottom-three team against lefties, and they're facing the presumptive NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.
The Rockies' team total is just 2.5 runs, and there is a very low chance any of those runs will come early.
On the other side, Atlanta is considerably better against lefties and has a softer matchup against Freeland. The Braves 2-5 hitters all have wOBAs of .370 or higher against lefties, while Freeland has a 4.18 xERA his first time through the order.
That makes the Braves' first-inning ML my favorite way to play this, but the Braves team YRFI or full-game YRFI are also solid options.
Billy Ward's Pirates vs Cubs NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes' starts are always worth considering for the NRFI. The rookie has a 2.23 overall ERA but has been even better early in games with a first-time-through-the-order mark of 1.73. His underlying numbers follow a similar trend, with better results early than late.
Plus, the offense behind him isn't good. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties, so they're not especially likely to score. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is no Skenes, but his first-time through-the-order ERA of 3.19 is still very solid.
This game has just a seven-run total, plus weather that's expected to limit production. It's an excellent pick even at high juice, but fortunately, ESPNBet is offering a slightly off-market line of -140. Take advantage of that if possible, but I'd still play the widely available -150 lines.
