We hit our first real rough patch of the season this week, going 2-2 on Monday and 1-2 yesterday for back-to-back losing days.
Still, our season record is 40-22 for more than 18 units of profit through 20 days, so things are going well overall.
Let's get right back on the horse on Wednesday, with five more MLB NRFI picks spread out over a full day of baseball.
MLB NRFI Picks: Wednesday Odds & Model Predictions
For all of the bets below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Braves vs. Astros (YRFI): Besides the solid price relative to the nine-run total, this one is all about the hitters. The Astros' top three all posted wRC+ numbers of at least 139 last year (100 is average), and Atlanta has two 160+ bats among its first four hitters. While both starting pitchers are solid, the edge goes to the bats today.
Cardinals vs. A's (YRFI): I have this game at just over 50% to the YRFI, making it worth playing at plus-money. Much of that is due to A's starter Paul Blackburn. He's improbably yet to allow a run through three starts this season, but his first time through the order xFIP last season was 4.79 — well above his overall numbers.
Reds vs. Mariners (NRFI): We're going back to the well on yesterday's sole winning pick. I have a similar projection today in a game with a 7.5-run total that features two solid starters. Fortunately, we're getting a considerably better price this time around, making it too good to pass up.
Rockies vs. Phillies (NRFI): Another game with an eight-run total featuring solid starting pitching and a low-juice NRFI. There's some risk on the Phillies' side, but it's a safe assumption that Rockies pitchers perform better away from home. Of course, we also assume their hitters will be even worse, which is saying something considering their overall numbers this year.
Angles vs. Rays (NRFI): Angels NRFIs are always a bit scary thanks to the looming presence of Mike Trout near the top of their lineup, but overall, Los Angeles has a non-threatening lineup. The Rays pose more of a threat, but they're taking on Reid Detmers, who hasn't allowed a run his first time through the order all season (with strong early-game splits throughout his career).
