The Tigers scored their only run in the top of the first inning on Wednesday, leading to a 1-2 NRFI/YRFI day and a loss of a unit.
Let's see if we can catch some better breaks on Thursday.
I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Thursday, July 25.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Roddery Munoz
We have one of the best pitchers in baseball, Corbin Burnes, battling a bottom-five Marlins offense, so pivoting from the traditional YRFI to the Orioles moneyline or the Orioles team-specific line would make sense here.
However, my model prefers the straight YRFI, as Burnes has a higher xFIP the first time through the order than overall, and the Marlins are likely to get the bulk of their production from the first two or three hitters, given the rest of their lineup is so bad.
With that out of the way, the main driver of this pick is (obviously) the Orioles. They're taking on Roddery Munoz, who has ERA and xFIP numbers in the fives both overall and his first time through the order.
He's especially bad against lefties, with a .445 wOBA allowed compared to just .276 against righties. Three of the O's first four hitters are lefties or switch hitters, and not having Adley Rutschman in the lineup is (surprisingly) a good thing — the switch-hitting catcher is batting just .224 against righties this year.
Even money is more than enough for the YRFI, though exploring other options isn't a terrible plan.
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Taj Bradley
This game has a 7.5-run total, with both starting pitchers' first-time through-the-order ERAs under 2.00.
That makes it a NRFI candidate, though the pricing makes it difficult. BetRivers (and other Kambi books) are hanging an off-market -130, which is well within the threshold value from my model.
However, if you can't bet there, consider pairing this in a parlay with a relatively safe option. My favorite is "pitcher not to record a win" on heavy underdog teams to cut the juice a bit. I got it down to -104 using Jonathan Cannon of the White Sox to not record a win on DraftKings, but shop around for whatever option you're comfortable with.
