We went 2-2 yesterday for a slight loss of 0.4 units, our second losing day in a row. Still, we finished the work week up 1.5 units, which I'll gladly take any given week.
Today, I'm back with four more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Saturday, June 15.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Saturday, June 15
Angels vs. Giants
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Sandoval vs. Keaton Winn
This bet is primarily based on the belief that both starters actual ERA regress closer to their ERA predictors, all of which are much better. Sandoval has a 5.23 overall ERA but 3.84 xFIP on the season, with those numbers dropping to 3.64 and 3.25 his first time through the order.
He'll need to be good against a Giants lineup that hits lefties well, though San Francisco is implied for a moderate 4.29 runs today.
It's an easier task for Keaton Winn, who has a 6.92 ERA but 3.92 xFIP overall, but with both numbers also better his first time time around the lineup. He's facing an Angels team that hits well below average against righties.
At a certain point we'll have to give up hope for regression on players like this, but at this point in the season there's still reason to believe their luck will turn around.
Phillies vs. Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. Taijuan Walker
On the other side of the regression coin, we have Grayson Rodriguez. He has a 3.09 ERA his first time through the order, but an absurd 5.35 xFIP. His overall indicators are also a bit higher than his actual ERA, but the effect is far more pronounced early in games.
That's not quite enough to go on just by itself, but this game features two top-10 offenses against righties, and another pitcher in Taijuan Walker with a 5.40 overall ERA and 5.09 first time through the order ERA.
That's enough to take this one at -110, which is also a slightly off-market line at DraftKings considering other books are -120 or longer.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Cooper Criswell vs. Carlos Rodon
While this game features two solid starters, it also has the Yankees. They're the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching, with the two best hitters in baseball getting guaranteed first inning ABs.
Plus, this is a very solid price on a YRFI in a game with a nine-run total — almost enough that I'd blindly bet it without any other information.
New York is projecting for most of the value, so you could certainly take their team-specific YRFI or first inning moneyline for a bigger payout. However, Rodon's underlying numbers are considerably worse than his actual ERA, which gives Boston a reasonable shot at scoring here too.
Both versions of the bet are plus-EV based on my projections, but I the regular YRFI more so.
Royals vs. Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Yoshinobu Yammamoto
I'm not buying the age-34 breakout for Seth Lugo. He has an elite 2.36 ERA through 14 starts — after spending most of his career as a reliever with worse numbers — but his ERA predictors are all in the upper threes.
That's a bad sign against a Dodgers team with three top-15 hitters at the start of their lineup, and a worse sign that both his ERA and xFIP are higher early in games.
Like the Yankees game that opens the door for Dodgers-specific bets, but I also like the standard YRFI better here. Yamamoto has a 4.73 first time through the order ERA, and the Royals are also a "top heavy" lineup, largely thanks to the presence of Bobby Witt Jr.
