There weren't many games to choose from yesterday, and I went 1-1 across the two MLB NRFI picks we made.
There's far more action to be had on Friday, with all 30 teamsin action.
We've got four MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and predictions for Friday, May 10.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Odds, Model Predictions (Friday)
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Casey Mize
The Astros rewarded us with a YRFI yesterday in New York and are poised to do it again today. They're always a threat, thanks to having two top-20 MLB hitters at the top of their lineup, even in a slightly tricky matchup with Casey Mize.
Mize's ERA and FIP predictors are slightly under 4.00, but his xFIP rises to 4.24 his first time through the order. Detroit also provides a bit of a threat here, with Valdez having similar splits and the top of the Tigers (projected but ever-changing) lineup much better than the bottom.
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Tanner Houck
I don't know what Patrick Corbin's YRFI record is exactly this season, but considering his ERA the first time through the order is north of 8.00, I'm sure it's not great.
Getting even money on a YRFI when he's involved is a gift and one I won't be turning down today.
Washington doesn't provide much equity on their end, so I'm also interested in the Red Sox team-specific YRFI at +180, but my model likes the full-game version slightly more. I'll be betting half of a unit on each version myself.
Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray vs. Austin Gomber
The horrible Rockies offense has led to some low prices on Coors-Field YRFIs this year. The game total in this one is still in the double digits, and the visiting Rangers have a solid offense and plenty of power in the first four spots in their lineup.
They draw Austin Gomber, who has a solid 3.79 ERA this season but considerably worse underlying numbers. He's also been bad early in games, with an ERA over six.
Like the above game, one team is projecting far better than the other. Unlike that game, though, I won't be splitting my bets. The Rangers team-specific line is just +160, which isn't enough to justify the added risk.
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott vs. Logan Webb
The Reds have struggled on offense this year, ranking bottom-five in the majors by wRC+ as a team. Their scoring is bolstered by playing home games in the second-best hitters park in baseball, but now they travel to one of the worst in San Francisco.
This game features a 7.5-run implied total and two pitchers with sub-3.50 ERAs on the season. Neither lineup is scary enough at the top to overcome both of those data points, so we'll take this as Friday's lone NRFI pick.
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