We had a brutal Friday, going 0-4 across four picks with some bad beats, including a runner getting thrown out at the plate. These things happen, though, and we're still up double-digit units on the season.
We've got three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and predictions for Saturday, May 11.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets
Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes vs. Zack Littell
I don't love taking NRFIs against the Yankees, but the combination of strong starting pitching and a 7.5-run total make it worth the risk at -113.
The Rays' Zack Littell has a 3.00 ERA, and a 2.27 xFIP his first time through the order. On the other side is Nestor Cortes, who also has a solid 3.32 xFIP at the start of games.
The Rays' lineup is also less threatening at the top, which balances out the slightly worse pitching numbers.
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney vs. Ryan Feltner
There are a few possible angles to bet this game. The standard YRFI at -125 has slight value, but that value is driven almost entirely by Texas. That led me to the Rangers' team-specific YRFI, but that's a disappointing +165 at DraftKings.
Based on my model's projections, the highest-EV bet available is the Rangers' first-inning moneyline at +240. I'm projecting the odds of Texas scoring and the Rockies not at around +215. There's also some additional value in the scenario where both teams score, but Texas scores more and cashes this bet.
They have an excellent matchup against Ryan Feltner and his 5.54 ERA — an ERA that jumps over 8.00 his first time through the order. With their 5.39 implied total, it's somewhat likely one of those runs comes in the first inning, given the strength at the top of their lineup.
As always with these longer-odds bets, this is a half-unit play for me.
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Tyler Anderson
This game has an eight-run total, but those runs are likelier to come late in the game.
Both starters have ERAs right around 3.00 and first-time-through-the-order ERAs below 2.00.
The Angels' lineup isn't very threatening without Mike Trout, and the Royals have hit lefties much worse this season, with a wRC+ of 90 compared to 99 against righties.
Crucially, this is also an off line at DraftKings. They're at -120 at the time of writing, while every other book is at -130 or worse.
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