We went 2-2 on yesterday, with our bigger plus-money bets failing to come through — although hopefully most people still turned a profit with some of the alternate angles mentioned.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Saturday, June 8.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Saturday, June 8
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Feltner vs. Kyle Gibson
Getting even money on a YRFI with an 8.5-run total is almost worth it in and of itself, which is the situation we have today.
It's made even better by the fact that both starters have higher xFIP numbers their first time through the order than overall, with Feltner at 4.98 and Gibson at 4.19. Feltner's high ERA is a bit misleading — home games at Coors Field will do that to you — but his xFIP numbers point to him still being a well below-average pitcher.
Additionally, both teams are on the correct side of their wRC+ against righties. Colorado doesn't have extreme splits but the Cardinals do, with a 29 point jump relative to matchups against lefties.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson vs. Matt Waldron
I'm a little worried about this one, given the rough overall numbers from Arizona starter Ryne Nelson. With that said, he's been much better early in games — his ERA drops about a run and a half, with a dip in his xFIP as well.
Given the relatively low juice line and the eight run total, we can overcome that factor.
Especially considering the low chances of Arizona to score in the first inning. They rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Matt Waldron has a 3.47 xFIP his first time through the order.
There's also a reasonable chance the game total here dips to 7.5 since the under 8 is favored at most books, which would improve my projection considerably, while also making the line move towards the NRFI.
Astros vs. Angels
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Hunter Brown
I'm going back to the well with this one, after both the game YRFI and my juicy alternate angles both cashed. This time, I'm sticking to the traditional YRFI, with both teams somewhat likely to score in the first inning.
The Astros are taking on Tyler Anderson, who has a 2.37 overall ERA but much worse underlying numbers. All of his ERA predictors are at least two runs worse, with his xFIP on the other side of five. He also has a slightly higher first time through the order xFIP.
Hunter Brown has the inverse situation, where he's almost certainly not as bad as his 6.18 ERA. Which isn't to say he's good — he has an xERA of 4.16.
The Angels are also extremely top heavy in their lineup — which is a nice way of saying the bottom of their order is terrible — meaning what runs they do score are likely to come from the first four or so hitters.
All of that adds up to solid value on the full game YRFI, while it's too risky to play any more specific variants like single team or first inning moneyline bets.
