We hit both of our bets yesterday, bringing us to 4-1 since coming back from the All Star Break.
I have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Sunday, July 21, including bets for Padres vs. Guardians, Orioles vs. Rangers, and Astros vs. Mariners.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Sunday, July 21
Padres vs. Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Ben Lively
Neither pitcher in this game is a household name, but they're both having very solid 2024 seasons. Both have overall ERAs in the mid threes, with King's underlying metrics similar and Lively's a bit worse.
They've both been excellent early in games though, with King's first time through the order ERA at 2.57 and Lively's at 2.15.
That should be enough here, with an eight-run total that dropped from an opening line of 8.5 and is already juiced to the under.
Orioles vs. Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Dean Kremer vs. Andrew Heaney
Andrew Heaney has a 3.79 overall ERA, but is in line for a bit of negative regression. His xFIP is slightly over 4.00, both his first time through the order and overall.
That could hit today against Baltimore, a lineup that owns a 121 wRC+ against lefties on the year. Much of their splits are driven by number two-hitter Adley Rutschman and number three Ryan Mountcastle, who both have excellent splits against southpaws.
We also get the Rangers against Dean Kremer, who has a 4.38 overall ERA but an xERA almost a full run higher. Kremer's first time through the order xFIP is also over four, so there's a decent chance of them being the team to cash this one.
Check out our Daily Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
Astros vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Ronel Blanco vs. Bryan Woo
Another day, another Mariners home NRFI. T-Mobile Park is by far the best pitcher's park in baseball, with run scoring 17% lower than league average there — the next best park cuts offense just 6%.
Plus, Seattle's offense is pretty bad, ranking 23rd in wRC+ against righties. They're facing a tough one in Ronel Blanco, who has a mid-twos ERA overall and his first time through the order.
Houston is better offensively, but Bryan Woo has a 1.29 ERA his first time through the order.
Between the two, that's enough for this reasonably-priced NRFI in a game with a 7.5-run total.
