We had a solid day yesterday, going 2-1 for just under a unit of profit. It's a new week, so let's get off to a hot start on a somewhat smaller slate today.
I'm back with two MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Monday, July 8.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Monday, July 8
Mets vs. Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott vs. Mitch Keller
This one's going to be a half-unit bet for me, based on a fairly low sample size from Christian Scott. His 33 innings this season is just below the cutoff point I've used for the model, but the pick is strong enough to be worth the risk.
That's due to his fairly telling splits the first time through the order. His 4.32 ERA jumps nearly a run to 5.30 at the start of games, with a 4.46 xFIP. Mitch Keller is a bit trickier to project, with a first time through the order ERA of just 1.98 but a 4.11 xFIP.
The sample size on Keller is large enough to believe the ERA is probably sticky, but we don't need a big projection from both sides with this pick coming in at plus money.
Additionally, the 8.5 run total is solid, and juiced to the over throughout the industry. If it were to move to 9.0, getting a plus money YRFI regardless of the matchup would be a solid value.
Rockies vs. Reds
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Feltner vs. Andrew Abbott
I was hoping for a slightly better price here, but with the game total moving up to 9.5 almost everywhere, this is still a solid number for the YRFI.
Andrew Abbott remains a major regression candidate, with a 3.24 ERA but xFIP and SIERA numbers just under 5.00. He's not especially bad early in games, but the odds of that regression coming early are just as good as it coming late.
The Rockies are also better — though not good — against lefties.
On the other side, Feltner's ERA and xFIP are both in the mid-fours his first time through the order, and the move from Coors Field to Great American Ballpark is only a slight upgrade for pitchers. With 90+ degree weather today, it might not be an upgrade at all.
Between the two, that's enough for the YRFI here, though I wouldn't go much past the line at Caesars.
