We took yesterday off but had a solid day on Friday by going 3-1 with the loss coming on a half-unit play.
I'm back with three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Sunday, July 7.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Sunday, July 7
Orioles vs. A's
Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. Mitch Spence
The Orioles are a solid YRFI team in general with four of their top-five hitters having at least a 130 wRC+ on the season. It's somewhat difficult to come up with a great projection on A's starter Mitch Spence — since he's split time between starting and relieving this season — but all things considered, he's a roughly 4.00 ERA arm both overall and the first time through the order.
That's not horrible of course, but given the tall task in front of him today, it gives Baltimore a fairly decent shot at scoring.
On the other side, Grayson Rdoriguez has a 5.12 xFIP his first time through the order. That might just be an anomaly considering his 3.38 ERA in that situation, or he could be due for some regression.
Either way, considering the strong projection on Baltimore, that's enough to play the YRFI here at very low juice.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. George Kirby
We hit this NRFI on Friday and would've cashed it again yesterday, with the first run in the game not coming until the fourth inning. In fact, we've hit the last six bets on Mariners games, all of them NRFIs.
There's nothing about today's matchup that suggests we should change course. Jose Berrios has a 3.63 ERA and an xERA of 4.74 — but he had nearly identical splits last season as well. Normally I'd expect some regression, but with a nearly 300-inning sample size, I expect his ERA to be sticky.
He's also somewhat better in both metrics his first time through the order — as is George Kirby, whose ERA drops to 2.20 early in games.
I'll keep going back to this well until it runs dry.
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Kutter Crawford vs. Luis Gil
This game features two pitchers who had excellent starts in 2024 but seem to have fallen on hard times lately. Crawford's ERA was 4.21 in June, while Gil's was an ugly 6.45 (and 9.00 in his lone July start.)
On top of that, Crawford is due for some regression in general, with his xFIP of 4.02 more than half a run higher than his ERA. That xFIP rises to 4.22 his first time through the order.
Gil is — or at least was — better early in games but seems to be totally broken at this point.
With the Yankees as the best offense against right-handed pitching in the majors and the Red Sox ranking 11th, somebody should score in the first inning tonight.
