We probably should've just taken Monday off, with our lone pick failing to come through. That's the way it goes sometimes, and we have way more opportunities today.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 23.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions
Phillies vs. Twins
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
Zack Wheeler is currently the second-leading candidate for the NL Cy Young, with a 2.70 overall ERA. He's been even better early in games, with that number dropping below two.
That limits the risk on the Twins' side of the equation, especially when they're implied for just 3.7 runs and are on the wrong side of their platoon splits by about 10 points of wRC+.
We're dealing with a little more risk from the Phillies, but Simeon Woods Richardson has also been solid this year with a 3.51 ERA that drops nearly a full run the first time through the order.
Philly is also better against lefties than righties (like Richardson) and it's relatively pitcher-friendly weather tonight, so that's enough to take the chance at this price.
White Sox vs. Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Jon Gray
Without looking it up, I'd be willing to bet that Garrett Crochet is the best NRFI pitcher in baseball. That's because he's an elite arm attached to a terrible offense, so his starts probably don't lose many NRFIs based on the White Sox's scoring.
Crochet has actually been better than his 3.02 overall ERA this season, with all of his underlying numbers at least half-a-run lower. Early in games, he sports a 2.53 ERA and 1.80 xFIP.
On the other side, we have Jon Gray. He hasn't been great this year (overall or early), but he's facing the worst offense in the league against righties, so I'm not especially concerned as long as he doesn't give Luis Robert Jr. much to hit.
Angels vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Logan Gilbert
Now, if I had to blindly bet a team that leads the league in NRFIs, it would be the Mariners. They combine a solid pitching staff with a bad offense — and the hardest ballpark to score runs in the majors.
Today, they're taking on the Angels, another team we like to take NRFIs against, at least since they lost Mike Trout for the season. Los Angeles ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties, plus the matchup with Gilbert and his 2.17 first-time-through-the-order ERA is tough.
Soriano isn't quite as strong, but checks in at 2.67 and is in a good spot against the 22nd-ranked Mariners.
