With one of our picks being predictably rained out, we ended up with just two MLB NRFI picks on Tuesday. Fortunately, they both cashed for two units of profit. Let's keep it going on a busy Wednesday slate.
I'm back with three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 10.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Wednesday Model Picks & Predictions (July 10)
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Shota Imanaga
I went back and forth with this one, but with the total climbing to 9, it became too strong of a projection to pass up.
Most of the value is on the Baltimore side, as it has a top-three offense against lefties. They're taking on Shota Imanaga, who was lights out to start the season, but had a 5.67 ERA in June and is at 4.50 through one start in July.
Imanaga's overall and first time through the order xFIP numbers are identical, but given Baltimore's roughly five-run implied total, that makes them close to 50/50 to score a run in any given inning.
Thus, whatever value we're getting from the Cubs against Burnes — not a ton, but not zero either — is our edge at a near-even money price.
This game also has excellent hitting weather, with temps in the mid 80s and the wind blowing out at double-digit speeds.
Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller vs. Michael King
We're continuing to ride Mariners NRFIs, which consistently project as stronger values than the prevailing lines.
We're taking on a bit more risk this time, as the Padres have the second-best offense in MLB against righties. However, Mariners starter Bryce Miller has been very good, with his overall ERA and xFIP in the high threes and his first time through the order numbers both around 3.20.
We're also not projecting much risk on the other side. Seattle has a below-average offense against righties and Michael King has sub-3.00 ERA and xFIP his first time through the order.
That makes this a very fair line, especially with a total of just 7.5 runs.
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone vs. Cristopher Sanchez
This game features two solid starters as Gavin Stone and Cristopher Sanchez both have ERAs right around 3.00.
However, it also features the best offense in baseball against lefties (the Dodgers) taking on the southpaw Sanchez — and a top-10 Phillies offense against righties facing Stone.
Both pitchers are due for some regression, with Stone's ERA predictors around a full run higher, while most of Sanchez's are at least half-run worse. While neither of those are horrible numbers, given the difficulty of both matchups, some of that regression should hit today.
Plus, we have a 9.5-run total and excellent hitting weather, so I'll give the edge to the bats in this strength-on-strength matchup tonight.
