We were unable to find any bets worth playing on a smaller slate yesterday, following a down-day in our previous column. Let's get back to it today with every team in action.
We have four more MLB NRFI & YRFImodel picks and predictions for Friday, June 28.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Friday, June 28
Nationals vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Zach Eflin
Mitchell Parker has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals this year, his rookie big-league campaign. He comes into Friday with a 3.30 ERA and similar ERA predictors through 13 starts.
That ERA drops even more his first time through the order to 2.70, and he's taking on a Rays team without a true standout hitter in the top three of their lineup.
Even with that said, Tampa is still the more likely team to score in the first inning, due to similar numbers for Zach Eflin and a weaker opponent in the Nationals.
I like everything about this NRFI except for the price, but -125 is still playable considering the 7.5-run total.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman vs. Yusei Kikuchi
After opening at 8.0, the total in this game has seen steady upward pressure, and as of early Friday morning is at 8.5 with slightly higher juice on the over.
That's a good sign for how the market views the overall scoring environment in this one, with the Yankees specifically likely to have their runs produced by their first three hitters.
Due to injuries, New York's lineup features two of the top three hitters in baseball in their first three lineup spots, followed by a slew of barely MLB-level hitters behind them.
Both pitchers also have reverse ERA splits, with higher ERAs their first time through the order than overall.
On top of that, Stroman is due for some general regression, with a low-threes ERA (both first time through the order and overall) but xFIP numbers more than a run higher in both scenarios.
Twins vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Logan Gilbert
The game has a total of just seven runs, which is driving a lot of the projection. It also has one elite pitcher in Logan Gilbert, who has a 2.75 ERA and 3.08 xFIP his first time through the order.
There is the issue Twins starter Bailey Ober. His ERA is 4.50 overall this year, and 4.54 his first time through the order. However, he's been better than that based on his ERA indicators.
His xFIP numbers (both overall and early) drop by about half a run, with his SIERA close to a full run. He gets a big upgrade in Park Factor by virtue of this game being in Seattle, the best park for pitchers in baseball. Relative to home games for Ober, runs are 17% lower at T-Mobile Park.
Plus there's the Mariners offense, which is about average overall against righties but with a league-high 28% strikeout rate. That should help Ober, a moderately high strikeout pitcher.
Hopefully other books will open up with a better price than we can currently get, but as of now I wouldn't go past the -140 line on DraftKings, while obviously preferring the -130 on BetRivers.
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics
Starting Pitchers: JP Sears vs. Slade Cecconi
These aren't the most confidence inspiring starting pitchers, with both Slade Cecconi and JP Sears coming into the game with overall ERAs of five or more. However, the situation gets better if you dig a bit deeper.
Cecconi's first time through the order ERA (as a starter) is a remarkable 1.04 through 26 innings of work this year. That's a large enough sample size to feel confident in, especially since the narrative makes sense that an occasional relief pitcher would struggle the longer he lasts into games.
Sears is also much better early on, with his ERA dipping to 3.48 across more than 30 innings. While not quite as strong, it's still a noteworthy split.
That's enough to play this one at even money, though I wouldn't go much beyond that.
