Finding value in the MLB NRFI market this time of the year is difficult with September callups throwing off lineups and pitching rotations.
I found a few for Wednesday, September 18, though, so we're back in action with two MLB NRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI Wednesday Model Picks & Predictions — 9/18
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs Rays NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Tanner Houck
I'm pretty surprised we're getting a -115 line (check "total runs" under the innings tab on FanDuel) in this game, considering the total is just 7.5 runs.
Typically the NRFI comes in 15 cents or so more expensive with that total, which is what we're seeing on other books.
We have two solid starters with first-time-through-the-order ERAs in the twos and solid overall marks, as well.
Boston is a solid overall offense with some quality bats at the top, but it has nobody we'd go out of our way to avoid, especially with this game being at Tropicana Field, which ranks 29th in Park Factor for hitters.
Billy Ward's Tigers vs Royals NRFI Pick
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Alec Marsh
Anecdotally we've struggled with Tigers bets (in both directions) this season, and Tarik Skubal seems to give up far too many first inning solo shots for a pitcher with his stat line.
However, the AL Cy Young shoo-in has a 2.50 overall ERA that drops to 1.57 his first time through the order, and he's taking on a Royals team that's a good bit worse against left-handed pitching.
On the other side, the Tigers' offense has made big strides late in the season but is still just league-average since August 1. Marsh is no Skubal, but his first-time-through-the-order ERA and xFIP are both in the mid-three range.
Considering the total in this game opened at 8.5 and is now down a full run at most books, that's enough to take a swing at the NRFI with a fairly affordable -125 line at ESPNBet.
