One of our five picks was a void due to a rainout, but the other four all won, continuing the solid start to our week.
We have two more MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and predictions for Wednesday, May 15.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Today's Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott vs. Brandon Pfaadt
The 8.5-run total in this game typically equates to a roughly 50% chance of the NRFI hitting, ignoring all other factors. Of course, those other factors tip the odds considerably.
Both pitchers involved have solid underlying numbers early in games, with expected FIP marks in the 3.80 range for both players. Pfaadt has also been better than his overall numbers indicate, with an expected ERA that is more than a run lower than his ERA.
With neither lineup having elite hitters at the top, the pitching matchup is more than enough to play this side of the bet.
Starting Pitchers: Austin Gomber vs. Michael King
While not exactly household names, both starters have overall ERAs in the mid-3.00s this year, with solid first-time-through-the-order numbers.
More importantly, Colorado's offense is terrible overall, while the much better Padres struggle against lefties, boasting just an 87 wRC+ against southpaws.
There's still a slight risk on San Diego's side of the coin, but given the shallow projection on Colorado, it's worth laying the juice here.
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