We had another mediocre week last week, trending mostly sideways. Still, we're a bit over 30 units on the season, with another big run hopefully coming soon.
We have two more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Monday, June 24.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks
Phillies vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Casey Mize
The return of Trea Turner to the Phillies lineup makes a huge difference in their first-inning projections. With Turner active, they have two hitters with a wRC+ above 145 (Turner and Bryce Harper) and two around 130 (Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm) among their first four hitters.
Turner hasn't shown any signs of rust since returning last week, as he has a five-game hit streak.
That should be enough to get to Detroit's Casey Mize. Mize has a 4.43 overall ERA that's slightly better early in games at 3.90. However, his xFIP rises to 4.47 his first time through the order.
Detroit isn't drawing totally dead here either with a top-heavy lineup taking on Aaron Nola, who has ERA and xFIP numbers in the mid-threes his first time through the order.
The Tigers' reluctance to play their best bats at the top of the lineup is always a concern, but we're getting a strong enough projection from the Phillies to not worry too much about it today.
Mariners vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Taj Bradley
Outside of the 7.5-run total, the driving force behind my low projection in this one is the starting pitching.
While Woo hasn't been as good as his 1.67 ERA, he has a 2.06 xERA and 4.05 xFIP through seven starts. Those numbers should converge somewhere in the low threes at some point.
However, he's been ridiculously good his first time through the order with a 0.53 ERA. Again, his xFIP isn't quite as strong at 3.53, but that's still a noticeable drop from his overall mark.
It's a similar story for Bradley, who has a 2.33 ERA and 1.98 xFIP his first time through the order — both considerably lower than his overall marks.
With both teams ranking slightly below average against righties and no elite hitters at the top of either lineup, this is a clear NRFI.
