It was a nice Friday on the MLB NRFI front, going 2-1, including a plus-money YRFI for our second straight winning day. Let's keep that momentum going into the weekend, with a full day of baseball on Saturday.
We have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Saturday, June 22.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Saturday Odds & Model Predictions (June 22)
Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (TB) vs. Jared Jones (PIT)
This game features a pair of below-average offenses against righties, and two quality right-handed starters — both Zach Eflin and Jared Jones have ERA indicators in the mid threes across the board.
More importantly, they both have even better numbers their first time through the order. Their ERAs both fall below three early in games, while Eflin has a 2.89 xFIP and Jones has a 3.11 mark.
The best line is at BetRivers (and other books that use the same odds provider), but I'd play this down to the widely-available -120.
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. JP Sears (OAK)
Oakland starter JP Sears has a 4.25 overall ERA this season. His underlying numbers all considerably worse, especially early in games, where his first-time-through-the-order xFIP is 5.91.
The southpaw is taking on a Twins team that hits lefties about 10% better than righties, and all three of the first hitters in their lineup are on the stronger side of their platoon splits. That gives Minnesota a decent chance to score here, while Oakland is far less likely.
They're taking on Bailey Ober, a righty who's due for some regression in the other direction. He has a 4.81 ERA but a 4.07 xFIP, with all of his underlying numbers better than his actual ERA.
The A's have a below-average offense against righties, without any particularly threatening hitters in the first three spots of their lineup.
As always, these big plus-money bets are just a half-unit play for me.
Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs. Frankie Montas (CIN)
Most of the value here in on the Boston side. The Sox are implied for nearly five runs overall and are taking on a pitcher in Frankie Montas who has a first-time-through-the-order ERA of 4.56 and xFIP of 5.25.
The top of Boston's order is strong, especially if it can get somebody on base and bring No. 4 hitter Rafael Devers to the plate.
I'm taking the regular YRFI here rather than Boston specifically for a couple reasons. The main one is the price — FanDuel's -115 is well off market, and books that offer single-team YRFIs have been aggressive in lowering the price on the likelier team lately.
The other is the conditions. This game is at Great American Ball Park, a top-five scoring park and the best home run venue in baseball. It also has weather conditions that historically boost scoring about 10%. That's 10% relative to all their games, not all games in general.
That means Cincinnati has a better chance than usual of running into one.
