With a 2-0 record yesterday (plus one game rained out) the winning streak is now 13. Let's see if we can complete the week on Sunday.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Sunday, May 19.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Sunday May 19
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. Aaron Nola
Clearly we aren't especially concerned with the Nationals and their 25th-ranked offense scoring against Aaron Nola. Nola has a 3.10 overall ERA, and Washington is implied for just three runs total on Sunday.
Which makes this a fairly good price given the one-way risk. Especially when you look at the underlying numbers for Williams. His 1.94 overall ERA is unsustainable, but his 3.92 xFIP is solid. That xFIP drops to an even better 3.39 his first time through the order, making this line worth playing.
As an added bonus, the weather in Philly is pretty favorable for pitchers, which put me over the edge on this bet.
Starting Pitchers: JP Sears vs. Brady Singer
This game has a nine-run total, and features two starters with ERAs well below their underlying numbers. It also has excellent hitting weather, with hot temperatures and the wind blowing out to left field.
More importantly, both Sears and Singer have higher xFIPs their first time through the order, which suggests that scoring will be front-loaded in this one. My model gives both teams a fairly equal chance of scoring in the first inning, making the full game YRFI the play here.
Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs. Bryce Elder
We tried this one yesterday, but the game was (prematurely) postponed due to weather. We're getting essentially the same line tonight, but I'd argue the YRFI is an even better value.
I'm fairly confident both starters went through most of a warm up before yesterday's game was surprisingly called off, which has to disrupt their routines heading into tonight's redo. Plus, the hitters all got a day off, and should be somewhat fresher than they would be otherwise.
Both teams are projecting reasonably well, with Atlanta featuring a stacked lineup and the Padres getting to face Elder, who has an xFIP north of five his first time through the order.
Maximize your MLB NRFI picks with our FanDuel bonus code.
