We're on a nice little run, including hitting a NRFI parlay on Saturday posted in the Action App.
I've got three more on a smaller Monday slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Monday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — June 16, 2025
Nationals vs. Rockies NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. Carson Palmquist
DraftKings is offering a 33% profit boost to YRFI/NRFI bets today, and Nationals–Rockies stands out as the best use of the promo. I intentionally listed the "play to" threshold as less than the non-boosted line, as I would only take this one with the boost.
With that out of the way, the Nationals are a relatively strong lineup at the top, taking on Carson Palmquist and his 7.77 ERA. Palmquist's ERA is "just" 4.22 his first time through the order, but that's still not exactly good.
The Rockies are on the right side of their platoon split against the righty Jake Irvin, although still a somewhat miserable offense overall. Still, Irvin's overall ERA is 4.21, and his first-time ERA is over 5.00, so Colorado could get this done as well.
Especially with the best hitting weather on the slate, which should boost scoring about 10% per Weather Edge.
Yankees vs. Angels NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt vs. Jose Soriano
The reason I'm using the YRFI boost on Rockies/Nationals is that, unfortunately, we can't apply it to single-team lines.
The Yankees are always in play for a team YRFI, with a stacked top of the order featuring three hitters with 130 or better wRC+ marks. One of those is, of course, Aaron Judge. He's the best hitter in baseball by any metric, and can easily cash a YRFI with one swing of the bat.
They're taking on Jose Soriano, who struggles slightly early in games. His 4.05 first time through the order xFIP is a bit higher than his 3.65 overall mark, meaning the Yankees' runs are somewhat likely to be front-loaded tonight.
Orioles vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin vs. Ryan Pepiot
Neither team has a hitter in the top three of their lineup with a wRC+ over 120, meaning these aren't lineups to be especially wary of. They aren't bad, exactly, but not strong enough for us to intentionally avoid them.
Especially in a relatively solid pitching matchup. Eflin has a first time through the order xFIP of 3.42, and gets about a 20% upgrade in terms of Park Factor (based on 2025 data specifically) over Camden Yards. That should help his underlying numbers improve to his actual ERA on the season, which is a bit higher.
Pepiot has a solid 2.93 first time through the order ERA and gets the home start, so he's fairly solid as well.
