I only had two picks on Tuesday, but I hit both of them, making it a solid start to the week.
I'm back with three more picks on Wednesday, featuring afternoon and evening games.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 28, 2025
White Sox vs Mets NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Shane Smith vs. Griffin Canning
I was initially surprised at how strong this bet was projecting in my model, especially since the Mets have a very tough lineup at the top.
That is, until I looked into Shane Smith's numbers. The White Sox rookie has a 2.36 overall ERA that dips to 2.14 his first time through the order, and his xFIP for that period is also below 3.00.
Plus, Citi Field is a moderate park upgrade.
Griffin Canning also has excellent early-game splits, with a 1.69 ERA his first time through the order.
He's also facing the White Sox, who aren't nearly as tough at the top of the lineup.
There's certainly some risk on the Mets side, but with ESPN Bet being 10 cents better than the rest of the market, I'm willing to take it.
Twins vs Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez vs. Drew Rasmussen
Thanks to the solid numbers from both starters, this game is projecting pretty heavily to the NRFI despite the eight-run total.
They both have overall ERA numbers of 2.60 or below, with somewhat lower xFIP numbers their first time through the order than overall.
Since neither offense is especially scary at the top — particularly without Byron Buxton — that's enough to create a strong projection.
There's some risk from the Rays since the middle of their order is fairly tough, but ideally, Pablo Lopez will get through the first three hitters in order and that doesn't become a factor.
Cardinals vs Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas vs. Cade Povich
We hit the YRFI in this game on Tuesday, and I'm going back to the well on Wednesday.
We have an 8.5-run total, but both lineups are fairly solid at the top, and both pitchers are due for some regression.
Miles Mikolas has a 3.05 ERA on the season but a 4.97 xFIP. That latter number jumps a bit over five his first time through the order.
Cade Povich has a solid 3.58 xFIP his first time through the order, but with the low juice on this bet, we don't need a big projection from both teams.
