We had a nice 3-1 day on the MLB NRFI front on Friday for a profit of nearly two units. Let's keep that ball rolling on Saturday, with plenty of MLB action to choose from.
We have four more MLB NRFI & YRFImodel picks and predictions for Saturday, June 29.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Saturday: Model Predictions (June 29)
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. Cole Ragans (KC)
There's a lot to like about the NRFI here with a total of 7.5 and two strong starting pitchers.
The one thing I don't like is the Guardians' splits against lefties — they rank sixth in MLB with a 117 wRC+. However, that concern is mitigated by Cole Ragans' excellent numbers this year.
His overall ERA and ERA indicators are in the low threes or better, with even stronger early game numbers. His first time through the order ERA is 2.23, with a 2.45 xFIP.
With even less risk on the Royals' side, that makes this a strong edge in my projections.
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
Tylor Megill is a tough pitcher to project with an ERA in the upper fours, a similar xERA, but considerably better FIP and SIERA numbers thanks to a high strikeout rate.
However, his first time through the order ERA is a dreadful 6.39, which is a good sign for the Astros early on in this game.
Framber Valdez is a mid-to-high threes ERA pitcher by pretty much any metric, and that includes his first time through the order splits. He's not a pitcher we'll go out of our way to target, but he's beatable under the right circumstances.
Especially against a team like the Mets, who have a top-five wRC+ against lefties. Houston ranks top five against righties, giving the edge to the offense on both sides here.
That makes this a solid pick at even money (or close to it) with an 8.5-run total.
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin (WAS) vs. Aaron Civale (TB)
A lot of this projection is based on the numbers of Aaron Civale. He comes into the game with an ugly 5.20 ERA, but there's more to that number.
All of his underlying metrics are considerably better, with a 4.00 xERA and even lower SIERA and xFIP. More importantly for our purposes, he has a 2.48 ERA and 3.51 xFIP the first time through the order.
He also has a favorable matchup with the Nationals, who have a below-average offense. Their starter Jake Irvin also has solid numbers by any metric.
With a 7.5-run total, that makes this an obvious NRFI bet.
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. Bryce Miller (SEA)
Our last bet of the day is eerily similar to the one above, with Pablo Lopez playing the role of Aaron Civale.
Lopez has a 5.11 ERA but just a 3.21 xERA, with his other ERA predictors similarly excellent. His ERA drops all the way to 3.41 — and his xFIP to 2.81 — the first time through the order as well.
Bryce Miller is in the Jake Irvin role, with his ERA, SIERA and xFIP all a bit under four overall. He also gets better early in games, with both his xFIP and ERA dropping into the low threes.
With a 7.5-run total and neither lineup particularly scary at the top — especially if Royce Lewis continues to bat fourth — this is a good price on a game I have projected well past this mark.
