It was a frustrating 2-2 day on Tuesday, with our Boston YRFI losing and Rafael Devers hitting a home run in his first at-bat of the game — which came in the second inning.
That's why this bet is so high variance though, as little things like getting to the No. 4 hitter in the first inning or not makes all the difference.
We have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 26.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Tuesday: 4 Model Picks & Predictions
Mariners vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. George Kirby
We've taken the NRFI in each of the last two games in this series, with a 1-1 record so far.
Let's break the tie in our favor on Wednesday.
The game has just a 7.5-run total (with some books still at 7.0), making the -130 line a solid price even without any other information.
It features two quality starting pitchers, with George Kirby bringing a 3.47 overall ERA and Ryan Pepiot sitting at 4.61 (but with predictive indicators in the mid-to-high threes).
Pepiot's ERA drops to 3.41 his first time through the order, though, and Kirby's is all the way to 2.52.
Considering neither team is especially scary offensively, that's more than enough for the NRFI here.
Guardians vs. Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco vs. Grayson Rodriguez
We hit this bet yesterday, and we're taking another swing at it on Wednesday.
There's a few reasons behind that, starting with the 9.5-run total. That makes the price on the YRFI solid but a steal if money continues to come in on the over and drives it up to double digits.
Beyond that, Carlos Carrasco has a 5.40 ERA through 13 starts this season, with slightly better (but still bad) first time through the order numbers. The first four hitters in Baltimore's lineup have wRC+ numbers of 127 or higher, so they're a tough group to get through at the start of games.
On the other side, Rodriguez has strong overall numbers, with a 3.82 ERA and 3.60 xFIP. However, his xFIP balloons to 5.34 the first time through the order. We haven't seen an equivalent rise to his ERA, at least not yet, but the discrepancy is enough that there's probably something going on.
Even if there isn't, we have a strong enough projection on the Baltimore side to carry this one, with enough wiggle room to be worthwhile at any book today.
Dodgers vs. White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone vs. Erick Fedde
This might be my first Dodgers NRFI of the season, and I have to admit I'm a little nervous.
However, the match checks out, so I'm going to trust the model over my intuition. Chicago is the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching and Gavin Stone has a 3.04 ERA, so there's very little risk coming from that side of the coin.
With that out of the way, let's look at the numbers for Fedde to see why my model likes this one. Fedde has a 3.05 overall ERA with similar (though slightly worse) underlying numbers. Notably, his ERA drops to 2.45 and his xFIP to 2.95 his first time through the order.
With the Dodgers implied for just under five runs — roughly half a run per inning — that suggests the majority of those will come later into the game, once Fedde tires a bit.
It's scary, but I have the fair value on the NRFI a bit past -125, making this playable throughout the industry with similar lines everywhere.
