The Action Network's MLB betting staff has four best bets ready for Friday, June 9.
Our MLB analysts have one total bet, two plus-money moneyline picks and one pitcher player prop among their best bets. Find their picks and analysis for Friday's MLB slate, including Cubs vs. Giants, below.
TODAY MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Friday, June 9 7:05 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Under 9.5  |
The wind is once again blowing in at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night as the Dodgers open a three-game set with the Phillies. The Phillies’ home stadium is one of the most wind-adjusted ballparks in MLB, and the 8-10 mph wind has an undervalued impact on the usually high ballpark run environment.
Ranger Suarez struggled with his command in his first few starts off of injury, but his changeup command improved considerably in his last two outings. He gets a matchup with a Dodgers lineup that projects much better against right-handed pitching than left. Los Angeles is still strong against lefties, but they're much closer to league average.
Michael Grove is also a pitcher I’m targeting because of his improved fastball velocity. He already has three offspeed/breaking pitches that grade as above average by Stuff+, and the improved fastball makes him more viable as a mid-level starting pitcher.
His projections for the rest of the season look rosier with the improved heater, and it's another reason why I'd bet under 9.5 runs at -115 or better.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs |
Marlins vs. White Sox
Friday, June 9 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Marlins ML +110 |
If you follow me on Twitter (@tannerstruth), you know my affinity for betting on the Miami Marlins. Winning (mostly losing) money on the Fish is an indispensable part of my identity.
So, it thrills me to say that this is the spot of the century for the Fish. The Marlins are in a smash spot on Friday.
For starters, Miami has a monster advantage in a battle between two right-handed starting pitchers. Over the past month and against right-handed pitching, Miami leads MLB in OBP (.343) while ranking fourth in OPS (.744) and wRC+ (111).
Luis Arraez is hitting over .400, while Jorge Soler and Jesus Sanchez are slugging over .500.
Bryan De La Cruz has the 10th-highest batting average in the NL.
The Fish are seven games over .500.
This is not a drill!
Meanwhile, also over the past month against right-handed pitching, the White Sox rank dead last in OBP (.273) and third-to-last in wRC+ (74).
Since May started, the Marlins have been nearly 40% better at generating runs than the White Sox against the right side.
Of course, when it comes to the right-handed starting pitching matchup, most would bet on Dylan Cease against a rookie pitcher.
But this is no normal rookie starting pitcher. Eury Perez is a 6-foot-8 generational prospect with a triple-digit fastball and three plus secondary offerings, and he’s pitched to a 2.25 ERA through his first five MLB starts.
Meanwhile, Cease isn’t even pitching that well. His fastball velocity is down, and he’s lost movement on his slider, so he’s striking out fewer batters and walking more – his K-BB rate is down 3% from last season.
Also, Cease’s stuff metrics are dropping precipitously.
As a result, Cease’s ERA and xERA are north of 4.50, and his xFIP is nearly there (4.37).
To be fair, Perez is due for significant regression (4.34 xERA), and his Stuff+ metrics are just short of Cease’s (107 across his arsenal).
However, at the minimum, most projections place Perez and Cease in the same tier. The difference is Perez should cruise past the White Sox offense while Cease gets battered by the suddenly hard-hitting Fish.
The Marlins also have a monster advantage in the later innings.
Miami’s bullpen ranks second in reliever xFIP over the past month (3.32) and enters this game fully rested following an off-day. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s pen ranks 18th in that stat during the same stretch and is a tad stretched after playing a doubleheader in the Bronx yesterday. (They used Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Reynaldo Lopez, Aaron Bummer and Greg Santos in the two games.)
In fact, this is a great situational spot for Miami in general. The White Sox must be gassed after playing 18 innings at smoky Yankee Stadium and then hopping on a red-eye flight back to Chicago.
Considering the context and matchup, pricing the 35-28 Marlins as underdogs to the 27-35 White Sox is deeply disrespectful. I’m taking advantage by hammering my Fish at (+100) or better.
Pick: Marlins ML +110 |
Reds vs. Cardinals
Friday, June 9 8:15 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Reds ML +158  |
By D.J. James
The Cincinnati Reds have been the talk of baseball lately with the call-up of prized prospect Elly De La Cruz. Cincy’s lineup looks far better with De La Cruz in it, but the pitching staff still has some major question marks.
Ben Lively has not been one of them, though. Lively has a 3.03 ERA against a 3.72 xERA. He also has an above average Strikeout Rate, an above average Walk Rate and ranks in the top half of the league in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. It has been quite the turnaround for the 31-year-old.
He will face the St. Louis Cardinals and Jordan Montgomery, who owns a 4.23 ERA against a 4.49 xERA. The sinker-baller’s decreasing Groundball Rate has been a big reason why his ERA has ballooned up this season from 3.11 in 2022.
With the sticks, the Reds have a 134 wRC+ since May 9 with a 9.1% Walk Rate and .885 OPS off of left-handers.
The Cardinals have a 111 wRC+ with a 9.9% Walk Rate and .768 OPS against right-handers.
The Reds definitely have a weaker bullpen than the Cards with a 4.74 xFIP in that same timeframe against the Cards’ 4.27. Cincy does have about three reliable arms they can go to, so this cuts into the Cardinals’ edge.
Overall, the Reds are undervalued by the market, and Elly gives them a bump, hitting-wise. Take them to win outright on the moneyline to +120.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML |
Cubs vs. Giants
Friday, June 9 10:15 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
By Nick Shlain
I love the chances of Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman going over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 on BetMGM) against the San Francisco Giants tonight.
Stroman has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in his last two starts and has a respectable 22% Strikeout Rate this year.
Perhaps more importantly, the San Francisco Giants lineup strikes out quite a bit. The Giants’ projected lineup tonight has a combined 26% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Stroman will consistently have an edge throughout the lineup tonight, because eight hitters in the Giants’ projected batting order have at least a 22% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Stroman has been working deep into games with regularity this season, especially recently. He has completed at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts. Between the matchup, Stroman’s strikeout rate and the way he pitches deep into games, this generates significant value on Stroman’s strikeout total hitting the over.
Pick: Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
