Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Thursday's two LCS matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
With Houston cutting the ALCS to 2-1, consider betting the Astros at +220 or better to stage a comeback, or look to bet them to win in Game 7 or to win the series 4-3 (projected +375, listed +370 at Caesars).
If the Astros survive to a Game 7, I would make them a decent favorite, especially considering Max Scherzer's Game 3 form. They reopened between +190 and +210, with the Rangers between -240 and -260 after Game 2.
The Phillies are currently between -750 (88.2% implied) and -1000 (90.1% implied) to win the NLCS before Game 3, with Arizona sitting between +550 and +650 on the plus side of the ledger. I would need +750 (11.8% implied) to bet Arizona to win four of the final five games, but I doubt the price climbs that high.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game 3
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 9 -115o / -105u | -132 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 9 -115o / -105u | +112 |
Ranger Suárez vs. Brandon Pfaadt (full projections here)
Before the NLCS, Game 3 was the one spot I had circled to bet Arizona at plus money at home potentially; it is the only game in this series where I project the Diamondbacks as a favorite. And after the Phillies trounced the Diamondbacks in Game 2, we're probably getting a few extra points on the Diamondbacks' Game 3 moneyline.
Perhaps most importantly, the Phillies won't have the benefit of playing at home, where they own an MLB record .718 winning percentage (28-11) in the postseason.
And I give Arizona their only starting pitching advantage of the series, with Ranger Suárez facing Brandon Pfaafdt. With a 2-0 series lead, I'd expect Rob Thomson and the Phillies to give Suárez a bit longer of a leash on Thursday after seemingly playing things batter-by-batter with him in Games 1 and 4 of the divisional round against the Braves.
Thomson has to manage for a seven-game series, with three games on three consecutive days in Arizona, and cannot afford to air out his bullpen behind Suárez as much as he did in a five-game series.
After working through early struggles at the MLB level, the rookie, Pfaadt, has shown better underlying indicators (4.22 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 19.1% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+ over his final 12 starts of the season) than Suárez (4.36 xERA, 4.05 xFIP, 97 Pitching+). However, the latter has been sturdy in the playoffs for Philadelphia over the past two seasons (combined 23 1/3 IP, 13 H, 4 R, 7 BB, 19 K).
Arizona had better numbers against righties than lefties over the entire season (17th vs. righties, 23rd vs. lefties), but those splits flipped in September (16th vs. lefties, 26th vs. righties). Current Diamondbacks hitters own a .797 OPS against Suárez across 85 plate appearances (4.7% K-BB%). However, he can limit their running game, having allowed just nine career steals on 16 attempts.
Suárez has a fairly typical split (2.74 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.20 xFIP vs. righties) but a bit of a unique pitch mix — aggressively attacking lefties with his sinker (64%) while reducing that usage by more than 40% against righties.
On a per-pitch basis, Corbin Carroll had better results against sinkers (2.8 Run-Value per 100 pitches) than any other pitch type, but even the NL Rookie of the Year struggled against same-side pitching (146 wRC+ vs. righties, 98 vs. lefties). Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Ketel Marte seem the best Arizona bats to target for player prop purposes.
Pfaadt didn't face the Phillies this season but gained postseason confidence with four shutout innings in his last start against the Dodgers. He favors his four-seamer and sweeper against righties (combined usage 79.5%) while mixing in his change (20%) more frequently against lefties.
He should be cautious with that changeup against Bryce Harper, who feasts on off-speed stuff. Brandon Marsh also looks like a strong matchup play against Pfaadt's arsenal.
Brandon Pfaadt, Nasty 87mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/6jyLDLi3nK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 12, 2023
Bet Harper to walk again in Game 3. After he homered on the first pitch he saw in Game 1, Arizona pitchers threw Harper just five total pitches in the zone over his subsequent six plate appearances, including a four-pitch walk in his first plate appearance on Tuesday. They didn't attack him in the zone again until the score in Game 2 got out of hand.
Even with a bullpen advantage for Philadelphia, I still project the Diamondbacks as -121 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -113 favorites for the full game. Bet Arizona in the first half (F5) to -110 and play its full game line to -104.
I set the total at 8.9 runs and would wait for an Under 9.5 at -112 or better.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Game 4
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9.5 -114o / -106u | +102 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9.5 -114o / -106u | -120 |
Jose Urquidy vs. Andrew Heaney (full projections here)
With Jon Gray and Martin Perez having worked in relief in Game 3 for Texas, the Rangers will likely use a combination of Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for bulk innings in Game 4. The Astros will turn to Jose Urquidy and, if needed, rookie Hunter Brown.
In the aggregate, those four pitchers make the Game 4 pitching matchup relatively even, aside from Houston's bullpen advantage.
Heaney (4.55 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, 103 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 100 Pitching+) has the highest upside but widest range of outcomes of the four, while Dunning (4.48 xERA, 4.39 xFIP, 84 Stuff+, 102 Location+ 96 Pitching+) has the highest floor.
Urquidy (4.70 xERA, 5.45 xFIP, 102 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 104 Pitching+) has the most playoff experience (42 IP, 3.64 ERA) and the best pitching modeling metrics of the bunch. Brown imploded in the second half (6.57 ERA across 61 2/3 innings) after a promising start to his rookie campaign — and the Astros may only use him in a mop-up situation.
José Urquidy, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/uWrbz2AcGP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 11, 2023
Both teams should be highly aggressive with their bullpen usage on Thursday. I would look to attack under props on outs and strikeouts for Heaney, who has only tossed 56 pitches in the past three weeks (while recording 11 outs in front of Dunning against the Orioles).
I'd expect Texas to go more with a scripted game — once or twice through the lineup, at most — for both Dunning and Heaney, while Dusty Baker will let Urquidy go so long as he's pitching well.
Bruce Bochy didn't let Heaney (career 3.56 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.19 vs. righties) see the lefty-smashing Aaron Hicks a second time (faced 14 hitters). It's possible that Bochy pulls Heaney after one trip through the batting order, with three righties (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu) plus Yordan Alvarez — who hits lefties as well as anyone — occupying the top four spots in Houston's typical southpaw lineup.
Sprinkle Heaney Under 11.5 Outs (to +100), and bet Under 12 outs (to -120) or Under 12.5 Outs (to -150) if you see it.
Current Astros hitters own a .789 OPS against Heaney across 193 plate appearances (14.5% K-BB%); righties Abreu (4 HR) and Altuve (12-for-37) are responsible for most of the damage against the southpaw.
Dunning has permitted a .951 OPS in 100 plate appearances against the same group (8% K-BB%); Altuve, Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Martin Maldonado are responsible for most of the offense against the righty.
I'm placing another bet on Alvarez to walk. Texas continued to pitch around the slugger in Game 3. Aside from Scherzer's second pitch to Alvarez — a grooved fastball that Alvarez fouled off — Texas didn't throw a pitch inside the zone to Alvarez until it had to, with the bases loaded and two out in the seventh inning.
Scherzer recorded a pair of called strikes on pitches outside the strike zone (one low and one inside), and Alvarez had a home run stolen on another pitch he hit outside the strike zone. Additionally, Alvarez singled on the only strike he saw among seven offerings in his ninth-inning matchup against Perez.
Current Rangers hitters own a .812 OPS against Urquidy across 83 plate appearances (10.8% K-BB%), although they didn't face him in 2023. Marcus Semien (8-for-21, 5 XBH) has the best numbers against Urquidy, but based on the pitcher's fastball/sweeper mix against righties, Mitch Garver is also set up for success.
Corey Seager could feast on the curveball and changeup that Urquidy prefers to deploy against lefties.
I set the Rangers north of 53% favorites in both halves of Game 4, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline at open. I would need -105 or better to back Texas, at a 2% edge compared to my number.
I set the total at 9.02 runs with both teams playing matchups and would bet Under 9.5 to -110, assuming the roof is closed again for Game 4, as it has been for the first three games in this series.
Sides and Totals for Thursday, October 19
- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (+105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -111)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -104)
- Houston Astros / Texas Rangers, Under 9.5 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
Prop Bets for Thursday, October 19
- Andrew Heaney, Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+115, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
- Bryce Harper, Over 0.5 Walks (-105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
- Ranger Suarez, Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-175, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -200)
- Ranger Suarez, Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-110, 0.1u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Ranger Suarez, Over 13.5 Outs Recorded (-140, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -150)
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 0.5 Walks (-115, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -120)
