Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Monday's NL Game 2 MLB Divisional matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
Texas has moved within a game of its first ALCS appearance since 2011 with four consecutive road playoff victories.
I project the Orioles to win the final three games 12.5% of the time (+700 implied odds) and would typically want something closer to +850 (10.5% implied) to jump on Baltimore's series price. The best available odds (+800, 11.1% implied at Caesars) still seem enticing; however, the Rangers may have the pitching advantage in Games 3 and 4 — whereas Baltimore held the pitching edge on paper in Games 1 and 2 and would in Game 5 as well.
It seems like a tall task to overcome, with Texas carrying the better offense and hosting a home playoff game for the first time since 2016.
With Minnesota headed home tied 1-1 with Houston, I essentially view either team as a coin flip to win two of the final three games in the series. I would need +105 to bet the Astros or +112 to bet the Twins series price before Game 3.
To reiterate my points from Sunday regarding the NLDS matchups, the current price point is just out of range on the Phillies. I would typically want -155 or better to back the reigning NL champions with a one-game lead, but you can bet the Dodgers to stage a comeback at odds of +122 or better.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Game 2
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -114o / -106u | +134 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8 -114o / -106u | -158 |
Zack Wheeler vs. Max Fried (full projections here)
As I noted before his dominant Wild Card Round start last Tuesday against the Marlins (6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K), I have continually handicapped Zack Wheeler as a top-three starting pitcher in baseball during the second half of the season when he posted an MLB-best 112 Pitching+ rating, even though his results over the same span (3.08 ERA, 3.58 xFIP) aren't quite as dominant as the models would expect.
Wheeler's average fastball velocity in that wild-card outing (96.8 mph) was his highest of the season, more than an entire tick higher than his season average (95.6 mph). Wheeler is a great pitcher who seems able to reach back for a bit more come playoff time — as he did last season — and the Georgia native has overtaken Mariano Rivera for the lowest WHIP in MLB postseason history:
Lowest postseason WHIP in MLB history (min. 40 IP):
ZACK WHEELER: 0.732
Mariano Rivera: 0.759
Kenley Jansen: 0.796
Sandy Koufax: 0.825 https://t.co/f1Kkvdaedy— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) October 4, 2023
I view Wheeler (3.21 xERA, 3.54 xFIP, 111 Pitching+ this season) as a better starting pitcher than Max Fried (2.75 xERA, 3.10 xFIP, 101 Pitching+), who missed three months with a forearm strain — often a precursor to Tommy John surgery — and hasn't pitched since Sept. 21 due to a blister issue on his left index finger.
Fried's returning for a massive start after a 17-day absence is reminiscent of Spencer Strider's rough Game 3 outing at Citizens Bank Park in last season's NLDS after spending 26 days on the sidelines.
Pitching models (96 Stuff+, 98 Location+ in the second half) are much lower for Fried's than Wheeler's marks and Fried's actual results, and I think there is a disconnect between the models and Fried's ability to suppress hard contact.
Still, with Atlanta's pitching behind Strider and Fried seemingly underwhelming for a Game 3 start at the Bank against Aaron Nola, the Braves need a big outing from Fried to match Wheeler in a pivotal Game 2 at home.
The handedness of the starting pitchers forces the offenses into the opposite split they faced in Game 1, ultimately benefiting Atlanta. The Braves led the league against both righties (123 wRC+) and lefties (131 wRC+) this season, while the Phillies ranked 10th (104 wRC+) and 11th (108 wRC+), respectively.
Atlanta carried its dominance against righties throughout the season, finishing with a 131 wRC+ (1st) in the second half and a 130 wRC+ (2nd) since the start of September. The Braves should be a handful for Wheeler and Nola.
The Phillies had a top-three offense against southpaws in the second half (125 wrC+) but finished closer to league average in September (106 wRC+, 12th). Additionally, current Phillies hitters have much better numbers against Fried (.844 OPS in 210 plate appearances) than Braves hitters have against Wheeler (.661 OPS in 300 plate appearances).
Atlanta has a slight bullpen edge by my numbers (about two-tenths of a run on an ERA projection). The Braves ranked fifth in second-half xFIP, compared to 12th for Philadelphia. However, the Phillies had superior pitch modeling metrics (112 vs. 103 Stuff+) over the same span. Additionally, Wheeler's stamina limits the need for many relievers.
Unless he completely implodes, Wheeler is unlikely to throw fewer than five innings after the Phillies went to their bullpen for 16 outs in Game 1. Wheeler has recorded at least 15 outs in all seven playoff starts and all seven starts against Atlanta dating back to last season.
I'd project Wheeler to record closer to 17 outs in this matchup and would bet Over 14.5 to -200, Over 15 to -170, Over 15.5 to -140, or Over 16 to -110.
I projected the Braves as -125 favorites in Game 2 and at -115 for the first five innings (F5); back Wheeler and the Phillies to +125 in the first half (F5) and +135 for the full game.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 2
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8 -122o / +100u | +134 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8 -122o / +100u | -158 |
Zac Gallen vs. Bobby Miller (full projections here)
As I mentioned earlier, Wheeler led all 177 qualified starters (min. 20 IP) with a 112 Pitching+ rating in the second half. The Dodgers' Bobby Miller ranked fourth in Pitching+ (110) and eighth in Stuff+ (125) over the same span and has all the ingredients to become the best pitcher in baseball.
Miller, the 29th overall pick in 2020, has the ideal frame for a workhorse (6-foot-5, 220 lbs.), with five above-average offerings per Stuff+ (133 fastball, 124 sinker, 148 slider, 117 curveball, 100 changeup) and above-average command (102 Location+ in the second half).
The results over the same span (3.36 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 18.7% K-BB%) were well above average but closer to that of a No. 2 starter (26th in xFIP) than his ace-level modeling metrics.
I still believe that Miller is in optimization discovery mode, figuring out how to deploy his elite arsenal best and work through a major-league lineup multiple times, and that the results will eventually intersect with my elite-level expectations at some point in the future.
Even taking his base-level indicators, however, I view Miller as the better starting pitcher than Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 4.18 xERA, 3.49 xFIP), who overperformed throughout much of the season and had several indicators — including xERA and pitch modeling metrics (106 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+) — that suggested his actual talent level was closer to a 4 ERA rather than the 3 ERA he held until September.
Miller faced the Diamondbacks twice in August, tossing six shutout innings on the road (4 BB, 4 K) and permitting four runs over six innings in a home win (2 BB, 4 K). Gallen has permitted a .748 OPS across 145 plate appearances against current Dodgers hitters with a 24.1% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate — suitable for a 15.8% K-BB%, below his career mark of 19.4%.
Offensively, Arizona did fare better against righties (99 wrC+, 17th) than lefties (92 wRC+, 23rd) this season but struggled against all types of pitching in the second half (91 wRC+ vs. righties, 25th; 86 wrC+ vs. lefties, 23rd). Still, the Diamondbacks' lineup gets the better-handedness split than expected against a lefty in Game 1.
However, the Diamondbacks don't have a left-handed starting pitcher, which is detrimental to their chances in this series. The Dodgers' offense ranked much better against righties than lefties, particularly in the second half (123 wRC+ vs. RHP, 2nd; 113 wRC+ vs. LHP, 13th), with that gap growing since the start of September (5th vs. RHP, 24th vs. LHP).
And on paper, the Dodgers have a significantly better bullpen, finishing 3rd in xFIP in the second half, compared to 23rd for Arizona. The bullpens ranked 5th and 15th, respectively, in Pitching+ and 6th and 23rd, respectively, in Stuff+ over the same span.
I projected the Dodgers as just higher than 63% favorites for both halves of Monday's contest and would bet Los Angeles to -158 for the first five innings (F5) and -161 for the full game.
Sides and Totals for Monday, October 9
- Divisional Series Price: Los Angeles Dodgers (+138, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +122)
- Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-140, 0.5u) at Bet365 (bet to -158)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-148, Risk 1u) at DraftKings (bet to -161)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (+126, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+140, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +139)
Prop Bets for Monday, October 9
- Cristian Pache, Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -115)
- Zack Wheeler, Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-161, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -200)
