Every team is in action in MLB on Friday, so there's plenty of betting value on the board.
Below, we have two best bets from the "Payoff Pitch" podcast for Friday.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | Pirates +Over 8.5 |
  | 10:10 p.m. | Dodgers +ML (-115) |
Pirates vs. Rockies Over 8.5
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Yep, I'm heading out to Pittsburgh and taking the over between two horrible pitchers in Cal Quantrill and Martin Perez.
Quantrill has been on the decline every year since his luck box a few seasons back. He has a near-six X-FIP and FIP with a strikeout rate around 12%.
The Pittsburgh offense isn't special and has hit a lull these last couple weeks, but this is a great opportunity to scratch off some runs against a below-average pitcher.
On the other side is Perez, who I discussed the last time on the podcast. He's somehow still kicking it, and he's getting by despite his underlying metrics saying otherwise.
Although it's two bad offenses, I think the pitching is worse, so I expect both of these teams to score some runs tonight.
Pick: Over 8.5
Dodgers ML -115 vs. Braves
10:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB Network
I like the Dodgers here and Gavin Stone on the mound.
Stone's outlying numbers are pretty bad, with a 16% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate. His underlying metrics are far better, with both the fastball and change-up appearing to be good pitches for him.
His swinging strike rate is above average, and we're generally seeing hitters swing early in counts, leading to a lot of first-pitch strikes with weak contact.
On the Braves' side, I see a 40-year old Charlie Morton who's in clear decline. His strikeout rate is trending downward to his lowest since 2015, and its accompanied by a significant decline in swinging strike rate.
His fastball is very hittable, and I think with the Dodgers being at home and with the mound advantage, they should be heavier favorites in this one.
Obviously Atlanta's offense hasn't been fantastic to start this season, but with the firepower, it can turn it on at any time. I think the Dodgers have a rested bullpen and at least an advantage in first game of this series.
