July gets started with a full, 15-game slate as all 30 MLB teams are in action to start the month.
Our experts have seized that opportunity and grabbed the best betting value on the board. They've identified value in four games and have come up with a variety of picks, including a pair of strikeout props, a first five innings total and a straight moneyline play.
So, be sure to continue reading as today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:07 p.m. | |
  | 6:35 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kyle Murray's Yankees vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Fade Fried
By Kyle Murray
The under came through for us on Carlos Rodon yesterday in this same matchup, and we are going right back to it with Max Fried, who is also a left-handed pitcher with a strikeout prop of 5.5.
Fried has been pretty dominant as of late, especially in the strikeout department and has seven or more strikeouts in four of his past five starts, but this is not a great matchup for him. The Blue Jays have nine righties in the projected lineup, and Fried has seen his strikeout rate drop to 23% against righties this season. Also, eight hitters in the projected lineup have a strikeout rate of 19% or lower against left-handed pitchers this season.
Pick: Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
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Charlie Wright's Padres vs Phillies Best Bet: Both Starters Throwing Well
Cristopher Sanchez may have wrapped up NL Pitcher of the Month honors with an 11-strikeout performance against Houston last week. He gave up a total of seven earned runs over five June starts and although talks have been an issue for Sanchez at times, he's gone three straight games without issuing a walk. The gem against the Astros dropped his ERA to 2.79, and his ERA estimators are right in line.
Nick Pivetta scuffled a bit in June, but closed the month strong with seven scoreless innings against Washington. His heater has been tremendous, posting a +12 run value, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Pivetta's career-best 3.36 ERA is supported by an identical 3.36 SIERA. This is the best version we've seen of him.
San Diego ranks 25th in wOBA and 23rd in OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of May. Philadelphia has been better, but only slightly. They were middle of the pack vs. right-handed pitching in June.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-108)
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Kyle Murray's Brewers vs Mets Best Bet: Tough Matchup for Peralta
By Kyle Murray
Freddy Peralta has found some good form of late, and while I like him as a pitcher in, I'm happy to fade him in a matchup against the Mets.
This is a tough spot for Peralta, as the Mets are projected to roll out a lineup that is not very strikeout-heavy and features six lefties. The projected lineup has a combined strikeout rate of just 20.5% this season against right-handed pitching. Having six lefties in the lineup would not bode well for Peralta, who has a 23% strikeout rate and just a 24.5% CSW% against lefties, compared to his 28% strikeout rate against righties.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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Bet Labs' Giants vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: System Play Backs Arizona
By Bet Labs
This system identifies winning teams that are performing steadily, but not drawing overwhelming market attention. This system targets regular-season teams with at least a breakeven win rate that are coming off a modest, but positive result, winning their previous game by between one and seven runs.
Their prior moneyline price indicates they weren’t heavy favorites — just expected to win. When they return as moderate favorites again, and have a consistent streak of games either home or away, it suggests controlled momentum rather than volatility. The setup capitalizes on teams that are undervalued by the public due to their lack of flashy blowouts or extreme winning streaks, offering value where confidence exceeds perception.
Overall, this system is 325-161-0 (67%) and has generated an 11% ROI. However, this season, it's running hot and has produced a 28% ROI while cashing 75% (12-4) of its picks.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-130)
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