The MLB playoffs roll into Wednesday night and our baseball betting experts have MLB best bets for Braves vs Padres Game 2 at Petco Park. Find a Max Fried prop pick and prediction below.
MLB Best Bets, Props, Picks & Predictions — 10/2
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:38 p.m. | |
  | 2:32 p.m. | |
  | 4:38 p.m. | |
  | 7:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James' Tigers vs Astros Best Bet: Trust Houston's Pitchers
By D.J. James
Hunter Brown is an excellent starting pitcher for the Houston Astros, who have to win or go home on Wednesday. Brown owns a 3.49 ERA and a 3.27 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 86.5 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate in the 97th percentile, which is impeccable. He limits barrels and ranks in the 81st percentile in ground-ball rate. He may struggle, at times, with walks (8.4%), but his strikeout rate is 25.1%.
His opponent will be the Detroit Tigers, who notched three runs by singling Framber Valdez to death, but may not be able to do so against Brown. Unlike Valdez, Brown doesn't yield hard contact.
The Tigers had a 107 wRC+ with a 9.8% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate off of righties in September. They struggle immensely against southpaws, but Brown might be too much of a mismatch.
Houston’s bullpen was dominant in September, pitching to a 3.40 xFIP with a 7.5% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate.
Look for the Astros to limit the Tigers in Game 2. The Tigers got started early in Game 1, but may not do so here. Bet their under from 3.5 to 3.
Pick: Tigers Team Total Under 3.5
BJ Cunningham's Royals vs Orioles Best Bet: Back Baltimore Early
Zach Eflin will get the ball with the Orioles' season on the line, and that's a good thing given how well he's pitched since coming over from Tampa Bay. He has an xFIP below 4.00 since the beginning of July and has incredible command of his entire arsenal, owning one of the lowest BB/9 rates in baseball.
Corbin Burnes shut down the Royals with his cutter and that happens to be Eflin's most utilized pitch. The Royals are third-to-last in terms of xwOBA against right handed cutters, so this will be a good matchup for Eflin.
Seth Lugo is a regression candidate as his ERA is sitting at 3.00, but his xERA is up at 3.73. He's dominated right-handed hitters this season, but is allowing a .301 wOBA against lefties, which is a problem because the Orioles have seven left-handed bats in their lineup.
Lugo can be a difficult pitcher to prepare for because he throws essentially eight different pitches, but most of them are well below average. Overall, he only has a 97 Stuff+ rating.
I have the Orioles projected at -152 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -140.
Pick: Orioles F5 Moneyline
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Brewers Best Bet: Will Mets Sweep?
By Tony Sartori
As much as this pains me to say as a Brewers fan, I believe Milwaukee's season will come to an end on Wednesday evening. In my eyes, the clear pitching advantage goes to the Mets in the Sean Manaea versus Frankie Montas matchup.
Through 30 starts this season, Montas is 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Manaea outranks Montas in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The hitting in this matchup is a wash as both teams rank in the top 10 in pretty much every category across the board. Even if you want to give a slight edge to Milwaukee in that department, the gap between Manaea and Montas is much larger.
Pick: Mets Moneyline
Collin Whitchurch's Braves vs Padres Best Bet: Don't Count on Max Fried
Max Fried has been a stud down the stretch for Atlanta, and he hasn't gone fewer than six full innings since August 26. Thus, it's understandable that his outs total is set at 17.5 and juiced to the over.
But this is an elimination game for Atlanta. While the Braves' rotation is overworked and undermanned, when you consider the extra two games they had to play on Monday and the unexpected unavailability of ace Chris Sale, I'd expect manager Brian Snitker to manage this like his season is on the line — because it is.
This will be the sixth elimination game the Braves have played since Snitker took over as manager, and not once has his starting pitcher in those games gone as many as six innings. The closest anyone got was Spencer Strider last year, when the ace went 5 2/3 innings in a Game 4 loss to the Phillies.
Outside of that, the longest a starter has gone in an elimination game under Snitker was Mike Foltynewicz back in 2018, when he lasted four innings (12 outs) in an NLDS Game 4 loss to the Dodgers.
The Braves need Fried to provide length, but more than that they need to win the game. I wouldn't be surprised if Snitker has the bullpen ready at the first sign of trouble, lest this game get out of hand.
Even if Fried performs as the Braves hope, I wouldn't expect him to see the top of the Padres' lineup a third time, which would put him in line to exit after five innings or thereabouts.
Getting plus money on this under is too good of value to pass up.
Pick: Max Fried Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+130)
