Another Tuesday during the MLB season means another episode of the "Payoff Pitch" podcast.
On today's episode, Action Network's BJ Cunningham and Tanner McGrath dish out their best bets — both first-five inning wagers — for Tuesday's MLB slate.
Check out the full episode of "Payoff Pitch" below, and continue reading for both of their best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | Reds F5 (-130) |
  | 9:38 p.m. | Yankees F5 (-165) |
Reds F5 (-130) vs. Cardinals
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I would bet this up to -130, and I like the full-game moneyline as well because I think the Reds' bullpen is great.
I really want to target Andrew Abbott, who I discussed last week on this pod. He doesn't have good Stuff+ numbers, nor does he strike a lot of guys out, but he knows how to pitch to contact.
I don't think advanced pitching metrics are as zeroed in on changeup-heavy southpaws, especially one that forces a ton of weak contact.
He has allowed only two barrels over his past four starts with a sub 3.00 xERA.
This will be on the Reds offense to give Abbott some support against 36-year-old Kyle Gibson, whose arm is toast. His velocity is down to a career-low along with his stuff indicators and his K-BB rate. I think he's an overvalued negative regression candidate, which is why I love the Reds today.
Yankees F5 (-165) at Angels
9:38 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Nestor Cortes has been incredible this season with a 2.85 xERA.
He really only uses his fastball and his cutter, and his fastball is slower than most, averaging a little over 92 mph. It has 18.7 inches of induced vertical brake, which allows him to get on top of a lot of hitters and force a high number of fly balls. His cutter, also low velocity, has a Stuff+ rating of 107.
Griffin Canning has been terrible this season with an xERA above five. His fastball has been shelled, allowing over a .400 xWBA with a Stuff+ of 67.
The Yankees are shockingly great against the fastball and are one of the best teams in the league against Canning's second offering, the slider.
I don't like the Yankees' bullpen, and their underlying metrics show how poor they've been to this point. Since I don't want to deal with them in a late-game situation, I'll just stick with the Yankees in the first five at -165.
