Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, July 26.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Guardians vs Rays NRFI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Esmerlyn Valdez Home Run
- Red Sox ML
- Ketel Marte Over 2.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
- Brewers F5 RL
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
Guardians vs Rays Picks
The Rays will host the Guardians on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Tropicana Field in Florida.
Drew Rasmussen will take the mound for the Rays, while Parker Messick will start for Cleveland in what should be a great pitching matchup.
Across 19 outings, Rasmussen has been really good, running a 3.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Messick has been similarly good, ranking among the top 15 qualified starting pitchers in ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.05).
Given how good these two pitchers are, I figure there should be minimal scoring early in this matchup.
Picks: NRFI
Cubs vs Pirates Picks
The Cubs and Pirates will square off on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game divisional set at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Braxton Ashcraft will take the mound for the Bucs, while Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubbies.
I expect plenty of runs in this matchup, and thus am looking toward the player prop market.
Ashcraft leans pretty heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it around 32% of the time.
Unfortunately for him, Pete Crow-Armstrong smashes fastballs. And he smashes right-handed pitching (147 wRC+).
So, it’s no surprise that PCA is 4-for-9 lifetime off Ashcraft.
I’m betting on him to continue his hot streak and dominance against Ashcraft.
I’m also looking to fade Taillon, who has recorded a dreadful 5.38 ERA across 72 frames this season. Taillon is especially vulnerable to big power threats, as he’s a fly-ball pitcher who’s allowed a whopping 22 homers this season.
That’s why I think Pittsburgh youngster Esmerlyn Valdez could find some success at the plate on Sunday afternoon.
Valdez has smashed seven homers in his past 10 games and is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball — he’s running a 1.098 OPS!
Taillon’s batted-ball profile is a mess, and Valdez is on a heater. I’m willing to bet on those two trends in this matchup.
Picks: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR | Esmerlyn Valdez Home Run
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks
The Blue Jays and Red Sox will meet on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game divisional series at Fenway Park in Boston. Payton Tolle will start for the Sox, while Kevin Gausman will start for the Jays.
The Sox have been white-hot, just recently ripping off a 15-game win streak. A big part of Boston’s recent success can be attributed to its pitching staff, and Tolle has played a vital role in the middle of the rotation. Tolle has pitched to a 3.31 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across his 16 starts this season.
While Tolle and the Sox have been heating up, Gausman and the Jays have been cooling off. Gausman is running a 4.51 ERA on the season and has allowed 25 earned runs across his past 28 innings pitched.
Thus, my handicap for this game will be straightforward.
I heavily favor the home team playing in the comfort of its own ballpark behind a solid arm and a white-hot lineup.
Picks: Red Sox ML
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Picks
The Diamondbacks and Nationals will duke it out on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Nationals Park in Washington.
Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Nats, and it’s safe to say he’ll be trying to bounce back from an atrocious start to the season.
Through 21 appearances, Mikolas is running a 5.60 ERA, having surrendered 61 earned runs across just 98 frames.
He’s a gas can, and I think that means it’s a great spot to target some Arizona hitters in this matchup.
Mikolas is a fastball pitcher, throwing his four-seam and sinker more than half the time. But both pitches have been absolutely wrecked this season (.370 xwOBA allowed on the four-seam, .365 xwOBA allowed on the sinker).
Mikolas is a classic sinkerballer — he relies on a low-walk, pitch-to-contact approach. And I think Ketel Marte matches up really well with that type of pitcher.
Marte has always hit high-velocity fastballs well (.408 xwOBA this season), and I think he should feast on Mikolas’ low-to-mid-90s stuff.
Picks: Ketel Marte Over 2.5 HRR
Padres vs Marlins Picks
The Marlins will host the Padres on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at LoanDepot Park in Miami.
Janson Junk gets the start for Miami, while Walker Buehler starts for the visiting Padres, so it’s no surprise that I expect plenty of runs in this matchup — both starting pitchers enter this game with ERAs over 5.00.
My primary betting angle will be targeting Fernando Tatis Jr., who is on an absolute tear after an abysmal start to the season.
Junk throws his four-seam about 34% of the time, but it’s not a very effective pitch (98 Stuff+, 13% whiff rate). He’s not going to overpower hitters, but he’s more of a weak-contact specialist.
Tatis hunts for fastballs early in the count with a very aggressive approach centered on driving pitches via excess weight on his back leg that generates a ton of power through his swing motion, allowing him to make heavy contact through the baseball.
Despite Tatis having posted career-low slugging metrics over the first two months of the 2026 season, the Padres’ slugger is now one of the hottest hitters in the game, with the three-time All-Star having just smoked a baseball 477 feet for a homer at Coors Field this past Monday.
Picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
Rockies vs Brewers Picks
The Brewers will host the Rockies on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
The hottest pitcher in the sport, Jacob Misiorowski, is set to take the mound for Milwaukee. He’s running an insane 1.57 ERA and 0.77 WHIP this season with 173 strikeouts across 115 frames.
Meanwhile, the Rockies will start lefty Kyle Freeland, who has been struggling mightily this year, running a 7.28 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 18 outings.
The Brewers will have a huge starting pitching edge in this game, on top of home-field advantage. I will absolutely be taking a shot with the Crew to cover both its first-five and full-game run-lines.
Additionally, I think I’ll take a shot with Jackson Chourio in the player prop market.
In 11 head-to-head at-bats, Chourio has recorded six hits off of Freeland, including three doubles, a triple, and a home run.
Picks: Brewers F5 RL | Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases | Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, July 12
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Guardians vs Rays NRFI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Esmerlyn Valdez Home Run
- Red Sox ML
- Ketel Marte Over 2.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
- Brewers F5 RL
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
