The MLB playoffs roll into Thursday, Oct. 17, with two LCS games: Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 and Dodgers vs Mets Game 4.
Our experts have come through three MLB picks and predictions for both the ALCS and NLCS. Find those LCS best bets below.
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks & Predictions — 10/17
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
  | 5:08 p.m. | |
| 5:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
D.J. James's Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under Pick
By D.J. James
Clarke Schmidt has been good in his only playoff start for the New York Yankees this year. He allowed two earned against the Kansas City Royals in 4 2/3 innings in the ALDS.
On the year, his strikeout rate was above 26% with a walk rate under 8.5%. His Average Exit Velocity hovered around 89 mph with an above average Hard-Hit Rate.
Matthew Boyd and a good chunk of Cleveland's bullpen will be his opponent on Thursday. Boyd has not given up a run in 6 2/3 innings in the playoffs and has struck out 10 batters.
His strikeout rate was comparable to Schmidt’s in the regular season with a lower walk rate. However, Boyd was limited to two innings in his last outing against the Tigers. Even though it worked out, he was sharp, so it would not be shocking if he saw more innings in this matchup.
Both the Guardians and Yankees have strong bullpens with xFIPs below 4.00. The Yankees will undoubtedly see more Cleveland relievers in the series, but both are reliable.
The Yanks may have a 116 wRC+ in the playoffs, with a relatively high walk rate and low strikeout rate, but much of the production has been from the power sources (Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton) with complementary production from the rest of the lineup.
The Guardians have been striking out more with a walk rate under 7%. Their playoff wRC+ is 77. Steven Kwan and José Ramírez have been their only effective hitters over the last month, so Schmidt and company should keep them in check.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-121 | Bet to Under 7)
Tony Sartori's Matthew Boyd Prop Bet
By Tony Sartori
The Guardians hand the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd in Game 3, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. Boyd shined in a limited eight-game sample size during the regular season, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally dominant as the southpaw ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success has continued into the postseason, where Boyd has yet to allow a run through two abbreviated appearances.
Specifically, we are going to back Boyd in the prop market as he finished the regular season in the top half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a total the left-hander has surpassed in each of his last eight appearances.
This success could continue against the Yankees, a team that Boyd averages six strikeouts per game against over the past four meetings.
Pick: Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Sean Zerillo's Yoshinobu Yamamoto Prop Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.44 xERA, 22.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA) was dominant in Game 5 against the Padres (5 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 19% CSW%) after a rocky Game 1 (3 IP, 5 R, 5 H, 2 BB, K).
The righty faced the Mets in April (6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 9 K) before missing a big chunk of the regular season with a shoulder injury.
Yamamoto's velocity increased in Game 5 (96.7 mph) relative to Game 1 (95.8 mph) — perhaps he dialed things up knowing he'd only go five innings at the most.
I think Yamamoto's outs prop is short for Game 4 (Over 13.5, +100); I would have also taken plus money on Over 14.5.
Both teams are in their lesser offensive split. Plus chilly temperatures (52 degrees at first pitch) and 8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field should further reduce the run-scoring environment at Citi Field for Game 4.
