Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, May 21.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Thursday, May 21
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Marlins ML (+120 | Bet to +100)
- Athletics ML (-102, Bet to -110)
Braves vs Marlins Picks
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -142 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +120 |
This is a fun matchup between two former Aces attempting to re-find their pre-Tommy John surgery peaks.
Spencer Strider’s strikeout rate is back up to 31% (36.9% pre-surgery) after returning with just a 24.3% mark last season. Through three starts, he’s allowed just four runs and only two across 11 ⅓ innings.
The problem is that none of the metrics support the improvement.
His velocity was down a MPH from last season, to just 94.6 in his first start, but he elicited optimism when it averaged 96.4 MPH in his second start.
The bad news is that, even then, he was still a tick below his pre-surgery velocity, and he dropped right back down to last year’s average (95.4 MPH) in his third start.
Strider’s 13.7% swinging-strike rate (within 1.1 points in all three starts) is 0.2 points lower than last year. He’s also walked 10 of the 58 batters he’s faced.
The 2.88 xERA loves the 33.3% HardHit rate. He’s done a nice job inducing more popups (three) than barrels (two), but have you ever seen a successful pitcher with a 17.2% BB? At best, it would make him a four-inning pitcher.
What does the pitch modeling say?
Strider’s 5.40 Bot ERA is 0.59 runs worse than last year, and his 83 Pitching+ is eight points worse.
In the end, there are signs he may be better than last season’s 4.45 ERA, but not by much. At least, not yet.
Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara started his 2025 just as poorly, possibly even worse, but did show some signs of coming around in the second half. Enough to excite people for this year, especially after allowing just three runs (two earned) over his first three starts (24 ⅓ innings) with a 16.3% K-BB, 28.6% HardHit, and 49.2% GB.
The good news is that he’s sustained the ground-ball rate, but allowed 25 runs (23 earned) over his past 39 1/3 innings with a 6.1% K-BB and 39.1% HardHit.
That’s not very fair because the latter is still a league-average rate, and he’s actually thrown four quality starts in his last five outings. Half of Alcantara’s 28 runs allowed this season have come in just a pair of seven-run starts.
His velocity (97.3 MPH) is down only 0.3 mph from last season, which was down only 0.4 mph from his 2023 peak.
Both pitchers have dealt with velocity loss by throwing fewer four-seamers than ever. But Alcantara was always more of a sinker guy anyway, and at 97.2 MPH, that pitch is 0.2 mph above his career average.
Whereas Strider doesn’t have a single above-average offering via Pitching+, Alcantara has just one pitch, his slider (25.6% 92 Pitching+), below a 99 mark. While his 103 Pitching+ is still a career worst, it’s 20 points ahead of Strider, and his BotERA has dropped 0.57 runs to 3.04 this year.
You can probably tell which direction I’m leaning here, but the truth is, I only have Alcantara between a quarter and a third of a run ahead of Strider.
However, I also think these offenses are closer than most people probably do.
Atlanta’s projected lineup over the past 30 days has an 82 wRC+. Miami’s projected lineup over that span has an 88 wRC+.
Atlanta’s projected lineup has a 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of 2025. Miami’s projected lineup has a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of 2025.
Staying with the projected lineups (via Rotowire), the Marlins have a 1-0 BRR edge. Both teams’ bullpens have ERA estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) averaging within 0.02 runs of 3.90.
The Braves do project for a 9-0 Fielding Run Value edge, but considering they are on the road, how exactly are the Braves favorites?
The answer must be that the market believes Strider is further along than Alcantara and that the Braves still have the far superior lineup to the Marlins, even without Drake Baldwin.
I disagree on both counts.
Pick: Marlins ML (+120 | Bet to +100)
Athletics vs Angels Picks
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -104 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -112 |
Home/Road splits are generally noisier than they are useful, but the exceptions are the few parks at the extremes (Colorado, Sacramento, Seattle, Texas).
Batters pummeled Luis Severino for a .345 wOBA at home last season, his first at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, while he held them to a .277 mark on the road. All this despite a mere 0.2-point difference in his K-BB rate.
The difference was the 10 home runs he allowed at home, as opposed to six on the road in almost the same number of innings.
While both wOBAs have climbed this season, batters are still more than 50 points better against Severino at home than on the road, with six of the seven home runs he’s surrendered coming in Sacramento as well.
Angel Stadium, which I can’t believe is still called that, is still a slightly positive run (102 Park Factor) and power (103 LH HR Factor, 112 RH HR) park, but a far cry from where the A’s now play their home games.
Additionally, after starting the season poorly, Severino has allowed just 10 runs over his past 30 innings (three road starts plus KC and SF at home) with a more respectable than strong 12.3% K-BB, but just 34.8% HardHit.
Most impressively, Severino has a 2.60 Bot ERA and 116 Pitching+ over this span. That’s top of the league stuff.
He still has estimators mostly not too far below 4.5, and did just allow five runs to the Giants on two home runs last time out, but struck out seven, walked two, and allowed only a single barrel.
My intention is not to try to convince you that Severino is a better pitcher than Jose Soriano at this point in their careers, as I certainly don’t feel that way.
But Soriano has also regressed tremendously from his red-hot start.
While still allowing a respectable 15 runs over his past 32 2/3 innings, Soriano has just one quality start over those six attempts with a 13.4% K-BB and a half-tick drop in velocity from his first four starts.
His 3.94 Bot ERA and 104 Pitching+ during this stretch are still perfectly competent. It’s just not a continuation of the breakout path he set out upon to open the season.
His 17.2% K-BB on the season is still his best mark in three years as a starter, and his 13.7% swinging-strike rate is more than two points better than last season. Still, he’s sacrificed some ground balls (50.7%) by throwing more four-seamers (23.4%) with fewer sinkers (28.4%), yet still retains those walk issues.
Soriano’s 10.9% BB is 0.1 point higher than last year. The lack of quality starts recently isn’t necessarily about giving up so many more runs, but it’s about not being able to finish six innings more than once in those six starts.
Still, I project Soriano as the superior pitcher by more than half a run, but I also project the A’s with a nearly 30-point better wRC+.
In addition to Los Angeles’s league-low 68 wRC+ at home (A’s: 93 on the road), they have posted just an 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (A’s: 109), while the projected lineup has just a 75 wRC+ over the past 30 days and 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the beginning of the year.
Comparatively, the A’s projected nine boast a 126 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
But offense is not the only edge for the A’s. In fact, it would be much easier to state that starting pitching is the only Angels' advantage.
The visitor’s projected starting lineup leads in BRR (-1 to -4) and FRV (-6 to -16).
The A's also have better bullpen estimators (4.03 FIP/4.30 xFIP/3.83 SIERA) by more than half a run (Angels: 5.13 FIP/4.56 xFIP/4.21 SIERA) over the past 30 days.
While we don’t yet have bullpen usage information from Wednesday night, I’m confident enough in backing the A’s at any dog or even slightly favored price.
Pick: A's ML (-102 | Bet to -110)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, May 21
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Marlins ML (+120 | Bet to +100)
- Athletics ML (-102, Bet to -110)
