Friday's MLB picks and predictions come via the Payoff Pitch Podcast, where are analysts break down their favorite bets from the MLB slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday.
Today's MLB expert picks and best bets feature one bet each on Orioles vs. Pirates and Phillies vs. Nationals.
Listen to the latest episode of Payoff Pitch and read their analysis below.
MLB Picks & Predictions for Friday, April 5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:1o p.m. | Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112) |
  | 6:45 p.m. | Phillies F5 ML (-175) |
Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112) vs. Orioles
4:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I know Paul Skenes gets all the buzz with the Pirates but I think we have a budding superstar on our hands.
Jones topped out at 99.7 mph on his fastball in his opening start against the Marlins. He was dominant with a Stuff+ of 149 and that was the best of anyone in baseball that pitched at least five innings.
He had a Stuff+ of 169 on the fastball, but we know that sometimes guys in their first start will debut a little higher than they usually sit because they have some extra juice. The guy forced 10 whiffs on 17 swings with his slider and a 42% whiff rate on the fastball. What's even more impressive is in the zone he only had a 57% contact rate on the fastball.
This guy has the upside and stuff to be a similar player to Spencer Strider. Baltimore's lineup is a pretty average plate-discipline lineup. There will be strikeouts in this lineup so long as they keep the older guys out there.
Eventually, we will see teams get a book on Jones, but until then, I will keep riding with the new guys because of the uncertainty in the market.
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Phillies +F5 ML (-175) at Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
My favorite side of the slate is fading Patrick Corbin.
I think he is the worst pitcher in all of baseball. He can't seem to get any strikeouts and his K numbers have gone down year over year. He was barreled a lot last year and didn't generate many whiffs. Oddly enough, he is worse at home than on the road, too.
Aaron Nola is obviously the far better pitcher and although he didn't have a great opening start, he was hard-hit just 35% of the time and didn't allow a single barrel. The barrels were his problem last year and fortunately he faces a Washington team that won't barrel up many pitches. I don't think Nola's biggest issues will be on display against the Nats.
The Phillies offense should get going after a shaky first two series for their right-handed bats.
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