Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Zerillo clone Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, May 14.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Thursday, May 14
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- Nationals +136, 1u (Bet to +115, drop to 0.5u below +130)
- Tigers/Mets under 7.5 (-112), 0.56u (Bet to -125)
- Padres Team Total Under 3.5 (-115), 0.58u (Bet to -130)
- Astros +113, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
- Cardinals/Athletics over 9.5 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to 10 +100)
Nationals vs Reds Picks
To be clear, Foster Griffin has been nowhere near as good as his 2.12 ERA, but he also hasn’t been bad.
The worst indicator in his profile is a 4.31 Bot ERA, which is challenged by a 100 Pitching+ that is more in line with remaining estimators. The contact inclusive FIP (4.08) and xERA (4.06) see him a bit worse than the more contact neutral SIERA (3.94) and xFIP (3.86).
The .216 BABIP and 84.1 LOB% will regress, and the 11.5% Barrels/BBE are slightly concerning, but they also represent a stunning 31.3% of his hard contact overall. You don’t see a lot of double-digit barrel rates for pitchers with hard hit rates in the mid-30s.
With a respectable 14.2 K-BB%, the Nationals have to be pretty happy with who they’ve found.
On the other side, we all know Chase Burns has the massive upside arm in this matchup, and he’s flashed it by striking out between seven and nine batters in five of his eight starts so far and only allowing more than two runs once.
The 14.6 SwStr% is impressive, but due to a low 13.8 CStr%, Burns has only struck out 26.1% of the batters he’s faced, while also walking 8.7%.
In the three starts where he hasn’t struck out at least seven, he’s failed to reach five strikeouts and has walked at least three twice.
His estimators are more middle and lower threes, including some of the best pitch modeling on the board Thursday (3.10 Bot ERA, 114 Pitching+), but the K-BB% is only 3.2 points ahead of his opponent.
I have their 2026 performance only separated by a bit more than half a run so far, which Washington easily makes up for in the bullpen.
Last 30-day bullpen stats:
- Washington: 4.05 FIP/4.60 xFIP/4.26 SIERA (7th worst)
- Cincinnati: 5.51 FIP/4.92 xFIP/4.47 SIERA (MLB worst)
They’ve both been bad, but the Reds have been two-thirds of a run worse.
The Reds do get the defensive edge by nine FRV via projected lineups (which we also have take with a grain of salt in day games – I never projected the catcher who catches the night before), but then give the offensive edge right back to the Nationals, who also lead the Cincinnati projected lineup by three Base Running Runs.
wRC+ Hm/Rd, vL/RHP, proj. LU v L/RHP since 2025, proj, LU L30 days overall:
- Cincinnati 94, 86, 96, 79
- Washington 107, 102, 98, 104
Despite weighing the closest and largest split sample (v L/RHP since 2025) more heavily than the others, I still come away with a double-digit Washington wRC+ edge for this matchup.
Mid-week early afternoon games can feature lineup surprises and sloppier play when teams come off a night game, and more variance often favors the dog.
I’m often looking for larger edges than usual due to these reasons, and I think we’ve found it here in a market that appears more geared towards what Chase Burns can be than what both teams have been this far.
I would want nearly the current price (FanDuel +136) for a full unit play, but would ride 0.5u down to around +115. I’m not even certain the Nationals should be dogs at all.
Pick: Nationals +136, 1u (Bet down to +115, drop to 0.5u below +130)
Tigers vs Mets Picks
Citi Field remains a slightly negative run environment, with a 98 Park Run Factor in the latest Statcast update, and cooler conditions, with temperatures in the low 60s, suggest something close to a 10% drop-off in run scoring historically.
Keider Montero has shown improvement this year. Not 3.18 ERA improvement, but perhaps lower fours, where many of his estimators lie.
Nolan McLean’s 2.78 ERA is incredibly above most of his indicators, with a 3.08 dERA and 3.38 Bot ERA being the exceptions.
An already depleted Mets lineup has also lost Francisco Alvarez this week, while the Tigers lost Kerry Carpenter.
There's also a chance Dillon Dingler, one of Detroit's better hitters, sits the day game after night game, but I've projected him as the DH.
The Mets may have gained defense in Luis Torrens and the recently promoted A.J. Ewing.
The Mets have a sub-90 wRC+ at home and vs RHP this year (Tigers 98, 105). Projected lineups are at 91 and 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, respectively.
The New York bullpen has been third best in the majors over the last month (3.66 FIP/3.50 xFIP/3.13 SIERA), while Detroit is sixth best (3.56 FIP/3.65 xFIP/3.54 SIERA).
We’ll keep this shorter and risk only half a unit, not only due to the previously mentioned day game factors, but also some weather concerns that could impact this game. Some high-leverage pitchers are being used in a tight game on Wednesday night, too, but haven't been worked heavily this week.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-112), 0.56u (Bet to -125)
Padres vs Brewers Picks
An even shorter one here because we're only analyzing one side.
Milwaukee has a 92 Park Run Factor with the roof closed, which it usually is under Thursday's forecasted conditions.
Kyle Harrison has broken out with a 20 K-BB% and the worst of his estimators only in the mid-three range (3.64 SIERA/3.55 xERA)
I'm not sure how San Diego is in first place with little hitting and starting pitching. They have a team wRC+ of 89 on the road and just 80 vs LHP. The projected lineup does have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, but just an 85 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
The Milwaukee bullpen also has the best estimators in baseball over the last 30 days (2.99 FIP/3.36 xFIP/3.19 SIERA).
We do not yet have the extent of their bullpen usage on Wednesday as of this writing, though.
Pick: Padres Team Total under 3.5 (-115), 0.58u (Bet to -130)
Mariners vs Astros Picks
If I could go back to my posted thought process before Luis Castillo pitched in Chicago (AL) on Saturday…
Is he at home? No
Is he facing a predominantly left-handed lineup? Well, not really, but the Astros have already pummeled Castillo for seven runs in Seattle and may be able to sneak as many as four LHBs into Thursday’s lineup (Yordan Alvarez, Zach Cole, Braden Shewmake, Cesar Salazar) due to injuries.
Are these all good LHBs? Again, no, but…
LHBs vs Luis Castillo on the road:
- Career: .350 wOBA
- 2026: .391 wOBA
- 2025: .405 wOBA
The difference is that RHBs are above a .400 wOBA against Castillo away from Seattle, too, this year.
Castillo was averaging 97.1 mph on his fastball as recently as 2022, but is now down to 94.8 mph.
Here are some additional comparisons:
- Home/Road wRC+: Astros 101/Mariners 89
- vs R/LHP: Astros 114/Mariners 116
- Projected LU vs R/LHP since 2025: Astros 116/Mariners 117
- Projected LU wRC+ L30 days overall: Astros 109/Mariners 115
Yes, I just reappropriated much of my game write-up from Saturday here after updating the stats, but it still plays.
The offensive numbers are closer, but the Mariners are also facing a better pitcher in Mike Burrows on Thursday.
Burrows has allowed nine runs over his last 22.2 innings with an 18.7 K-BB% and 30.5 HardHit%.
The Houston projected lineup has a 21 FRV edge over Seattle’s projected nine on Thursday. Will a banged-up and struggling Cal Raleigh catch a day game after a night game? Will he even DH?
The bullpen may be a bit of a problem, but hopefully the lead will be large enough to hold, and a full game is a better price than F5.
In looking for bigger edges in these mid-week afternoon games after night games, I can only endorse this slightly lower than it is as of this writing (+113 DK).
Pick: Astros +113, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
Cardinals vs Athletics Picks
Sacramento is home to the second-most positive run environment in the league, with a 121 Park Run Factor since it began hosting Athletics games. Thursday’s weather forecast is only slightly run-suppressive, with temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s expected for most of the game and little wind impact.
Michael McGreevy is destroying his estimators with a .200 BABIP and 87.5 LOB%. The 13.6 K-BB%, which includes a 91.7 Z-Contact%, produces most estimators closer to four, but get a load of that 5.07 xERA!
What’s going on there?
That’s the 13 Barrels (10.4%) he’s allowed. Yet, only five have left the park, which explains the FIP below four.
That’s a St Louis thing. Let’s see him keep those Barrels in the park here.
With a 30.4 HardHit%, Jacob Lopez still maintains a 3.38 xERA that’s even better than last year’s 3.65 mark.
However, the rest of it is a mess.
Maybe we should have paid attention to last year’s 4.79 Bot ERA because it’s now 4.81. A 2025 100 Pitching+ has dropped to 94.
Worst of all, his 19 K-BB% has plummeted to just 2.4%.
The Cardinals have been about average against LHP (99 wRC+ team, projected lineup 109 wRC+ since last year), while the A’s have a 116 wRC+ at home and 109 vs RHP. Their projected lineup has a 117 wRC+ both for the last 30 days overall and against RHP since last season.
St Louis has an above-average defense, but the A’s defense and both bullpens are about neutral. The Cardinals are also one of the better base-running teams in the league.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to 10 +100)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, May 14
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Nationals +136, 1u (Bet to +115, drop to 0.5u below +130)
- Tigers/Mets under 7.5 (-112), 0.56u (Bet to -125)
- Padres Team Total Under 3.5 (-115), 0.58u (Bet to -130)
- Astros +113, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
- Cardinals/Athletics over 9.5 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to 10 +100)
