Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, April 14.
Sunday MLB Expert Picks | Predictions, Preview, Odds (April 14)
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, 1:40 p.m. ET
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -104 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
Bailey Ober vs. Jack Flaherty
Bailey Ober ran into an opening start annihilation against Kansas City in which the Twins righty allowed eight runs, three homers and couldn't complete two full innings. His second start against the Dodgers was a much more respectable five=inning, one-run outing with seven strikeouts and two walks. Ober has plus command, plus extension and his stuff plays up as a result of those two factors. Ober's early-season underlying metrics are a bit wonky through two starts. Hitters have been incredibly passive against him, taking a lot of called strikes and swinging and missing way less.
Ober's stuff profile looks the same as last year and I'm still a believer in his command in the future. He had the poor outing on opening day but I'm willing to chalk that up to an early season dud. The homers will remain a problem given how much he fills up the zone, but Ober's plus command suggests he'll have more outings like the Dodgers one than the Royals one. The Tigers love to be patient early in counts as well, so Ober should pitch from ahead most of this game.
Flaherty has tweaked his pitch mix to try to hide his declining fastball this season. Through two starts, the underlying statistics look quite impressive. He has a career high CSW%, career best swinging strike rate and a 12:1 K:BB ratio through two starts. If you just take those stats at face value, you might think Flaherty is a bet-on pitcher this season going forward. The problem is that hitters will be able to quickly catch onto this slider-heavy approach, and Flaherty without his fastball is a seriously diminished pitcher that's been largely ineffective for multiple seasons now.
Flaherty has a 78 Stuff+ fastball and not a single one of his pitches grades out as above average. It's hard to see him maintain his solid xStats through starts, especially when you consider opponent. His first two starts came against the White Sox and Athletics, two of the worst lineups in all of baseball. Now facing a competent Twins group, Flaherty is clearly overvalued as a pick'em at home against Bailey Ober for me.
The Bet: Twins ML (-104)
Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, 4:10 p.m. ET
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -146 |
Javier Assad vs. Luis Castillo
Javier Assad's sinker looks better this year by underlying metrics and it could be the key to unlocking more potential upside in him. Through two starts, I am a believer in Assad. Eno Sarris of The Athletic wrote about Assad's additional fade and ride on his sinker, and now the Stuff+ metrics view it as a solidly above-average pitch (102 Stuff+). He's used that sinker to improve greatly against righties through his first two starts, and now he'll face a lineup in Seattle that is generally filled with right-handed bats in the key spots.
Seattle has some options for platoons in its lower places in the order, but five of its top eight regulars bat from the right side (Jorge Polanco, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford are the exceptions). Assad's sinker has yet to allow a hit all season, and he's improved his first pitch strike rate. Command has generally been an issue for the Cubs righty in the past, but the Mariners lineup is quite patient and will take first pitch strikes. His underlying swinging strike rate suggests there's some regression coming for his early-season strikeout rate, but Assad also gets a boost pitching in a park that's excellent for pitchers' strikeout rates.
Luis Castillo will make his fourth start of the season, and for the fourth straight time, I'll be betting against him in some capacity. He's a notorious slow starter and he's allowed four earned runs in 5.2 innings or fewer in each of his three starts in 2024. Castillo has a career 3.59 ERA, but in March/April/May, his ERA is 4.27. This is a major difference and he remains overvalued as he still ramps up to find his peak stuff by midseason.
The Bet: Cubs ML (+124)
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 p.m. ET
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 9 -105o / -115u | +126 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9 -105o / -115u | -148 |
Miles Mikolas vs. Zac Gallen
Miles Mikolas has never relied on plus stuff to be a solid mid-rotation starter, but the early-season returns are suggesting his stuff may no longer be good enough to even pass at the MLB level. His zone contact rate is up to 93.8%, a career high by more than three percent. He also has the lowest fastball Stuff+ (60) of his career and the lowest swinging strike rate by 2.5%. Mikolas' fastball Stuff+ is worse than Marco Gonzales, Cal Quantrill and Kyle Freehand thus far.
He faces an Arizona lineup that has excellent plate discipline and very little swing and miss in it, which will have balls constantly in play Sunday.
Zac Gallen's stuff isn't quite at what it was last season yet. Although he's posted similar numbers to past seasons when you compare his swinging strike rates and overall results metrics, there are some troubling indicators too. Gallen's first pitch strike rate is through the floor. He's pitching out of the zone way more, even though he's not pitching from ahead in the count as much.
Gallen usually has plus command and a ton of pitches to cover for his not overpowering stuff, but his command hasn't been close to his best thus far through three starts. He had a friendly strike zone from the umpire in his Yankees start and got to face the Rockies twice, but I remain of the belief that Gallen is overvalued in the current market.
The roof will be closed at Chase Field on Sunday, which hurts the run environment a bit. Even still, I remain a doubter in both starters current stuff and would bet the F5 Over 4.5 at -115 or better.
The Bet: F5 Over 4.5 (-115 or better)
