Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, April 9.
MLB Picks Tuesday | Odds Today, Predictions, Preview (April 9)
Tigers vs. Pirates
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -116 |
Casey Mize vs. Martin Perez
Despite permitting three runs in 4 1/3 innings, Casey Mize was rather impressive in his 2024 debut against the Mets.
Coming off of Tommy John surgery, the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft showed a career-best 95 mph fastball and posted an eye-popping 120 Stuff+ figure (173 Splitter, 136 curveball, 105 Fastball, 97 Slider) alongside excellent command (111 Location+) — even better numbers than he posted during a promising spring (108 Stuff+, 100 Location+).
Perhaps Mize hasn't fully optiMIZED (I'm so sorry) his arsenal; he threw the slider — which grades out as the worst of his four offerings — one-third of the time (up from 23% career), but he did press on that nasty splitter frequently (24%) too.
Based on a 39-start sample before this season, Mize is likely severely under-projected (projected FIP range of 4.51 to 4.73) for 2024. The pitch modeling metrics from his most recent outing indicate that Mize — who appeared to be a potential bust a couple of years ago — seemingly has ace potential once again.
Martin Perez (projected FIP range of 4.21 to 4.86) is a known commodity with a more limited range of outcomes. The veteran lefty posted a 4.90 ERA and 4.96 xFIP last season, owns a 4.67 ERA and 4.65 xFIP through two starts this year, and has a career 4.42 ERA, 4.41 FIP and 4.50 xFIP.
I have upgraded my priors on Mize — relative to a week ago — and project as much as a full run differential between these starting pitchers on a season-long ERA.
I set the Tigers as -114 favorites (53.2% implied odds) for the first five innings (F5). Bet their F5 moneyline to -105 (51.2% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my projected odds, and consider adding Detroit's F5 spread (+0.5 runs) up to -145.
I set the full-game projection at -101 (50.2% implied) and would bet the Tigers' moneyline at +108 (48.2% implied) or better.
Bet: Tigers F5 ML (-105 or better) | Tigers F5 +0.5 (-145 or better) | Tigers ML (+110 or better)
Orioles vs. Red Sox
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -104o / -118u | -132 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -104o / -118u | +112 |
Corbin Burnes vs. Brayan Bello
Despite a solid start to his tenure in Baltimore, Corbin Burnes has gone away from the sweeper that saved his 2023 season.
Burnes posted a 4.10 ERA, 4.23 xFIP and 14.2% K-BB rate through June of last season while using a traditional slider (107 Stuff+). On July 14, he debuted a new sweeper (177 Stuff+) and pitched significantly better in the second half of the season (2.71 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 20.7% K-BB%).
Burnes posted 119 Stuff+, 101 Location+, and 104 Pitching+ during the first half of the 2023 season and increased those ratings to 137, 103, and 109 in the second half.
His early 2024 results (112 Stuff+) — while returning to the traditional slider (104 Stuff+) — align much more closely with last season's first half.
Burnes still has five above-average offerings per Stuff+, his velocity has held up and he'll continue to be an effective pitcher whether he uses a slider or a sweeper. Still, it's confounding why he would move away from potentially his most dominant offering.
Brayan Bello has shown improvement this season for the Red Sox. The 24-year-old righty moved away from his four-seamer (career 19.2% usage) and is focusing on a three-pitch mix (sinker, changeup, slider).
Bello is throwing his slider harder (up from 85.3 to 87.9 mph), and the Stuff+ rating on the pitch has improved from 103 to 125, bringing his overall profile (99 Stuff+, 100 Location+) closer to the league average (90 Stuff+ in 2023).
I projected the Red Sox as slight +104 underdogs (48.9% implied) in their home opener. Bet Boston at +114 or better.
Bet: Red Sox ML (+114 or better)
Brewers vs. Reds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -118o / -104u | +118 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -118o / -104u | -138 |
Joe Ross vs. Frankie Montas
While 2024 projections show a similar range of outcomes for Frankie Montas (projected range of 4.42 to 4.70) and Joe Ross (projected range of 4.51 to 5.05), pitch modeling metrics show that Montas (107 Stuff+) is closer to his peak form (4.00 xERA, 3.61 xFIP in his last healthy season in 2022), while Ross (86 Stuff+) was unimpressive in his first MLB outing since 2021.
Still, although I give Montas — and the Reds — the clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, I view a similar advantage for Milwaukee's bullpen against Cincinnati by roughly a half run on a season-long ERA.
Brewers relievers have posted a combined 111 Stuff+ and 102 Location+ this season, compared to marks of 98 for Cincinnati's relievers in both categories.
As a result, my projections align with the F5 market (projected +141), but I see value in the Brewers' full-game line (projected +117), with the vastly superior bullpen down to +127.
Bet: Brewers ML (+127 or better)
Nationals vs. Giants
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -115o / -105u | +146 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -115o / -105u | -174 |
Josiah Gray vs. Kyle Harrison
It's always a red flag for me when a top prospect is traded multiple times in the minor leagues.
Josiah Gray was initially dealt from the Reds to the Dodgers in a package for Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Matt Kemp — and was subsequently traded to the Nationals in a package for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.
Aside from a decent strikeout rate (22.5% career), Gray's MLB tenure has been rather abysmal (career 4.84 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 4.90 xFIP in 73 starts and 386 2/3 innings).
And there are no signs of life in his pitch modeling metrics this season (82 Stuff+, down from 88 in 2023).
Conversely, Kyle Harrison has solid command and a high floor despite mediocre stuff (95 Stuff+ in 2023; 90 in 2024).
Harrison relies heavily on his four-seamer (60+% usage) and generates a ton of fly balls (53.1% career), but he's in a perfect home environment. Oracle Park has the lowest Park Factor for home runs (80; 20% below league average) over the past three seasons, although it's slightly better for right-handed bats (82) than lefties (78).
And I don't think it's any coincidence that Harrison has performed significantly better at home (.275 wOBA, 2.66 ERA, 2.3% HR rate) than on the road (.397 wOBA, 5.68 ERA, 8.4% HR rate).
Harrison's projected 2024 FIP range is between 4.21 and 4.48, while Gray's forecast is between 4.93 and 5.43. I like Harrison at the more optimistic end of his projections and view Gray towards the more pessimistic side of his range.
As a result, on a season-long ERA, I see as much as a full run differential between these two starting pitchers.
I projected the Giants as -196 F5 favorites and would bet their first-half moneyline to -180. I'd want -172 or better to play their full-game moneyline (projected -187).
Bet: Giants F5 ML (-180 or better) | Giants ML (-172 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, April 9
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-170, Risk 0.5u) at Draftkings (bet to -175)
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Colorado Rockies, Over 11 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 11.5, -108)
- Boston Red Sox (+119, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +114)
- Baltimore Orioles / Boston Red Sox, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Cleveland Guardians F5 (-200, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -215)
- Chicago Cubs (+140, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +125)
- Detroit Tigers F5 (+105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -105)
- Detroit Tigers F5 +0.5 (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to -145)
- Detroit Tigers (+114, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +110)
- Houston Astros / Kansas City Royals, Over 8.5 (-108, 0.5u) at DraftKings bet to -110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +127)
- New York Mets / Atlanta Braves, Under 10 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -120 or 9.5, -101)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-166, 0.5u) at FanDuel bet to -180)
- San Francisco Giants (-163, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -170)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-198, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -200)
