MLB Expert Picks
Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, April 10.
Nationals vs. Giants
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8 -110o / -110u | +166 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8 -110o / -110u | -198 |
Patrick Corbin vs. Jordan Hicks
Among the former relievers who transitioned to a starting role this spring, Jordan Hicks appears to have made the smoothest adjustment.
Hicks' velocity (averaging 96.3 mph on his sinker) is down significantly compared to his time as a reliever (averaging 100.2 mph last season, with a 130 Stuff+ figure). Still, Hicks has generated a 1.94 xERA through two starts, alongside an impressive 114 Stuff+ rating (136 splitter, 117 slider, 109 sinker) — and he's shown improved command over his entire arsenal.
The splitter (15.1% usage rate) is the new weapon in his arsenal and should help to neutralize left-handed hitters (career 3.33 xFIP vs. righties, 4.57 xFIP vs. lefties).
Projections system are high on Hicks for the remainder of the 2024 season (projected FIP range of 3.71 to 3.95), though all of those projections think he'll start 21 games and pitch another 23 in relief.
Hicks generates a high number of ground balls (60.2% career), so even if his command regresses, he should find double-play balls to bail himself out of jams.
Projections see a substantial difference between Hicks and Patrick Corbin (projected FIP range of 4.91 to 5.44), who has posted the following xERA figures over the past four seasons: 6.16, 6.41, 5.62, 5.10, alongside a remarkable 16-50 record in decisions — nine more losses than any other pitcher over that span.
I'm using a fairly conservative projection for Corbin — a sub-5.00 ERA projection — and I still see value in the Giants in this matchup.
I projected the Giants as -220 favorites (68.8% implied) for the first five innings on Wednesday and bet their F5 moneyline to -201 (66.8% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
San Francisco should also have a more significant bullpen advantage on Wednesday than Monday or Tuesday in this series. Washington's key relievers have worked aggressively in the past three days to secure three consecutive wins.
I projected the full game moneyline at -208 and would set my price target at -190.
Bet: Giants F5 ML (-201 or better) | Giants ML (-190 or better)
White Sox vs. Guardians
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +198 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -240 |
Erick Fedde vs. Tanner Bibee
With Luis Robert hitting the IL over the weekend and Yoan Moncada going down with a non-contact injury on Tuesday, the White Sox lineup is starting to resemble a Triple-A roster, and I would probably project the Orioles' Triple-A lineup to outscore Chicago against the same pitcher.
I project Chicago's offense for a 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and expect it to struggle to score against Tanner Bibee (3.69 xERA, 4.22 xFIP in 2023; projected FIP range of 3.91 to 4.31 for 2024), who has shown an improved arsenal this season (105 Stuff+, up from 98 last year).
Bibee's slider (130 Stuff+, up from 110) and curveball (100 Stuff+, up from 88) — which he throws about 35% of the time combined — grade out as his two best offerings. His changeup was also an above-average pitch last season, but it has lost a tick of velocity and dropped by four points (97 Stuff+, down from 101).
Erick Fedde has looked effective in his return from the KBO, where he won the Choi Dong-won Award (their Cy Young equivalent) and league MVP honors, following a dominant campaign for the NC Dinos (20-6, 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 24.6% K-BB%).
Pitch modeling metrics like both his slider and new-found splitter (113 Stuff+ on both pitches) and show that the total package is better than the league average (97 Stuff+, 111 Location+, 105 Pitching+) — a significant improvement over Fedde's 2022 form for the Nationals (80 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 93 Pitching+).
Progressive Field typically plays around six percent below the league-average run-scoring environment. Wednesday's conditions should benefit the pitchers if anyone (55 degrees at the first pitch, with 6-mph winds blowing in from right field). That's the opposite of Tuesday's conditions — temperatures were about 13-degrees warmer, with 11-mph winds blowing out to right field.
I project value on the Under both for the first half (projected 4.06) and the full game (7.62). Still, I want to avoid betting on the White Sox bullpen whenever possible. Chicago's relievers have posted a 4.94 XFIP and 4.67 SIERA this season. It ranks 24th in Pitching+ (97), and I project the unit as the worst in baseball.
If the White Sox fall behind, they're always liable to use a long reliever to soak up innings, which can turn a deficit into a blowout and ruin an otherwise easy Under.
As a result, I will stick with the first-half wager and bet F5 Under 4.5 to -115.
Bet: F5 Under 4.5 (-115 or better)
Marlins vs. Yankees
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +184 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -220 |
Ryan Weathers vs. Marcus Stroman
Since coming over from the Padres, Ryan Weathers has experienced a velocity uptick in Miami (95.8 mph on his fastball, up from 94.5 mph career). His Stuff+ rating has increased from 88 to 100, but Weathers retains terrible command (career 9.4% walk rate and 3.71 BB/9) and should struggle against a Yankees offense that has chased less frequently (25.4%) than any team this season.
No offense has offered at fewer pitches (41.7% swing rate) than the Yankees, and they also have the third-highest contact rate in baseball (80.5%). As a result, depending on the number and price, I'll look to take the Over on Weathers' walk prop.
With improved velocity, Weathers could hit the more optimistic end of his projection range (4.45 to 4.85 projected FIP) for 2024 if his command improves.
Marcus Stroman seemingly outperforms his projections on an annual basis (career 3.62 ERA, 3.60 xFIP). Perhaps the forecasts for 2024 (projected FIP range of 4.08 to 4.21) continue to sell Stroman short of his actual talent level.
However, Stroman's velocity has been down two ticks in the past two seasons and bottomed out at a multi-year low of 89.7 mph in his last start against the Blue Jays. His Stuff+ is at 97 this season, down from 101 and 99 the last two years in Chicago.
I haven't downgraded him yet, and Stroman's ground ball rate (56.7% career) should keep the homers in check at Yankee Stadium.
The Marlins' bullpen projects much better than they have performed this season. I set New York as -213 F5 favorites (68.05% implied) and -194 full-game favorites. Bet the former, up to -195
Bet: Yankees F5 ML (-195 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, April 10
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- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Baltimore Orioles (+100, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -105)
- Chicago White Sox / Cleveland Guardians, F5 Under 4.5 (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -115)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Minnesota Twins, Under 9 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -119 or 8.5, +100)
- New York Yankees F5 (-188, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -195)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-190, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel bet to -201)
- San Francisco Giants (-188, Risk 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -190)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-160, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -170)
