After a seven-game slate to begin the week, MLB has a full 15-game on Tuesday night.
A lot of our focus tonight will be on the NL East with picks involving the Phillies, Marlins and Mets. Additionally, Cody Bellinger and the Cubs visit the Rays, while Jose Ramirez and the Guardians will take on the Reds in an in-state battle.
So, let's dive into three MLB player props for Tuesday, June 11, featuring bets for Kutter Crawford, Tylor Megill, Bellinger and Ramirez.
MLB Player Props: Tuesday, June 11
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120, DraftKings)
- Kutter Crawford and Tylor Megill Not to Record A Win Parlay (-140, DraftKings)
- Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBIs (+120, DraftKings)
Zac Eflin will be making his second start since returning from the IL. I have some level of interest in his Ks prop considering the Cubs are sixth in strikeout percentage against right-handers, but Eflin has gone under 4.5 in his last four starts. Additionally, the Rays are notoriously conservative with their starting pitchers, and Eflin is expected to be on a pitch count.
He doesn't have a listed outs-recorded line tonight, and rather than play a guessing game with how long he goes, I'm looking toward the Cubs' players, several of whom have good track records against Eflin.
In particular, Cody Bellinger is 4-for-13 (.308) with two solo home runs against Eflin. He also had two hits in the final games of the Cubs' previous series in Cincinnati, clearing this line in three of the four games.
In the prior two games against the White Sox, he did not record a hit. However, he scored two runs in one game and drove in two runs in the other.
Overall, Bellinger has hit this line in seven of his last 10 games, 11 of his last 15 games and eight of his last 10 road games.
He may only get two opportunities to face Eflin tonight if the Rays starter does indeed get a quick hook. However, that may be enough to cash that line if he can get an RBI single or hit his third home run off him.
He typically gets between four and five plate appearances, with five in each of his last two games. That will give him plenty of opportunities to cash this HRR combo.
*Crawford: Red Sox vs. Phillies.
**Megill: Mets vs. Marlins.
Betting on starting pitchers to record wins can be a great way to extract value, particularly when targeting favorites. On the flip side, betting on them not to record wins makes a ton of sense in today's game as well. In addition to qualifying for a win, they can also record a no-decision or outright loss.
However, because of that, the odds are often negative and typically need a partner to get close to even money. Today's combo sits at -140, but two pitchers I don't expect to find the win column today are Kutter Crawford and Tylor Megill.
Crawford is enjoying a solid season with a 3.51 ERA, 3.66 xERA, 1.18 WHIP and .230 xBA. Despite that, he has a 2-6 record in 13 starts and is winless in his last six starts.
Tonight, Crawford will face the Phillies, who own the best record in baseball. The Phillies rank sixth in MLB in batting average and third in runs scored. Additionally, Phillies ace Zack Wheeler will oppose Crawford on the mound.
Typically, I'd be targeting Wheeler for a win in this spot. The Phillies' lineup, led by Bryce Harper and former Red Sox player Kyle Schwarber, is built to tear up Fenway Park's dimensions. However, they spent the weekend in London playing the Mets.
They had an off day yesterday, but I could see their offense being sluggish in their first game back in the States as their bodies readjust to the time difference.
Wheeler, who did not participate in the London Series, should be able to keep the Red Sox offense in check long enough for his bats to wake up. He's also projected to pitch deeper in the game than Crawford, as his outs-recorded line sits at 18.5 compared to 16.5 for Crawford.
Even in a low-scoring game, this matchup should favor the Phillies, who are -170 on the moneyline tonight.
Crawford is -450 to not record a win tonight, which is why I'm pairing him with Mets starter Tylor Megill.
Unlike Crawford, Megill will have a more favorable matchup in the Marlins, who own the worst record in the National League. However, the Mets are just 3-19 against left-handed starters this season. One of those losses came against Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who tossed six scoreless innings against the Mets on May 17 and will oppose Megill tonight.
Like the Phillies, the Mets have returned from London and could start slow as well. Given their struggles against left-handed pitching, including Saturday's game against Ranger Suarez, Luzardo may shut them down again tonight.
If Luzardo outduels Megill over the first six innings, that may be enough to send Megill to a no-decision tonight. He has pitched past the fifth inning in just one of his four starts this season and completed six innings in only six of his last 29 starts.
Megill is 1-2 this season and has 18 wins in 62 career starts.
After consecutive years with 100-plus runs batted in, Jose Ramirez had a "down" year by his standards with 80 last season.
He's already well on his way to surpassing that number this season as we approach mid-June. Ramirez is nearly averaging an RBI per game, as he leads MLB with 62 ribbies in 63 games played.
Rediscovering his power stroke has certainly helped. Ramirez already has 18 home runs, the latest coming on Saturday in Miami. He has also had an RBI and now has driven in a run in four of his last five games.
Going back further, he has driven in 11 of his last 15 games and 37-of-63 games this season — all encouraging trends for +120 odds.
The Reds are going with an opener tonight in left-hander Brent Suter. Ramirez has faced him just three times but took him deep for his only hit. A solo shot in the first inning would cash that line quickly in likely his only at-bat against Suter.
However, he also has a hit and/or RBI against Reds relievers Sam Moll, Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims, and Alexis Diaz. He is also hitting .296 with 20 RBIs in 20 career games at Great American Ballpark.
I like Ramirez's chances of picking up another RBI in Cincinnati tonight.
