For the baseball slate on Wednesday, May 1, I’m targeting the following players for my MLB player props: Corbin Burnes, Joe Musgrove and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
"Hump day" has turned into "bump day" for many of the top arms in baseball. Aces will be wild this evening, and they're also going to be featured in our top MLB player props for Wednesday's slate.
Find my three MLB prop bet picks for Wednesday below.
MLB Player Props for Wednesday, May 1
In the table below, you'll find each of Action Network contributor Doug Ziefel's top MLB player props from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Reds vs. Padres
Joe Musgrove
Under 6.5 Strikeouts
It has been a very rough start to the season for Padres starter Joe Musgrove. He enters this outing with a 6.94 ERA and has shown no signs of improvement with his xERA coming in at an even worse 7.42.
One of his main issues is that he hasn't been missing bats. His strikeout rate is down over 7%, and his walk rate is up 3%. Musgrove hasn't been executing his pitches, and opponents have punished him for leaving mistakes over the dish. Musgrove ranks in the third percentile in xBA.
So, even in a great matchup against the Reds — who hold the fourth-highest team strikeout rate — you have to fade Musgrove. In addition to his struggles, he has not proven he can exceed this total.
Over his last 56 starts, Musgrove has gone under this number in 64% of them. That hit rate equates to implied odds of -178 that he'll go under again tonight.
Pick: Joe Musgrove Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Yankees vs. Orioles
Corbin Burnes
Over 16.5 Pitching Outs
Our next stop will be in Baltimore, where the Orioles will hand the ball to Corbin Burnes.
Burnes has been the ace the Orioles needed when they acquired him this past offseason, and he has the chance to put a statement on a series win over the Yankees tonight.
Burnes has been phenomenal through his first six starts. He comes into this outing with a 2.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. This matchup will be his toughest test to date in an Orioles uniform, but the matchup has brought his outs prop too low.
One of the main reasons Burnes was sought after is because he's one of the few actual innings-eaters left in today's game. Burnes has gone over this pitching outs total in five of his first six starts in Baltimore and 76% of his last 72 starts.
That long-standing hit rate gives us implied odds of -317 that he'll go over it in this outing. Given the current price, that's a massive edge we can't pass up.
Pick: Corbin Burnes Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125)
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Lastly, we head out west to Arizona. The bees should be clear tonight so we can enjoy a great pitching matchup. One of the men slated to take the bump is L.A. starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yamamoto came over this offseason with a ton of hype, pressure and expectations. After a nightmare debut in the Korea series, he has found his footing in the Major Leagues.
His settling in has come with plenty of strikeouts, as he possesses some of the best stuff in the game.
Yamamoto comes into this start with a strikeout rate of 31.9%, which ranks in the 91st percentile among all qualified starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks are a tough matchup, but his strikeout upside presents great value.
While we don't have the biggest sample size to work with, Yamamoto has recorded six strikeouts in four of his first six starts, which means he shouldn't be plus-money to go over here.
In addition, he has had at least seven strikeouts in half of his starts this year. Yamamoto to record 7-plus strikeouts can be found at +250 at bet365 if you're interested in climbing the ladder.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
