With just a little over two weeks left in the Major League Baseball season, every pitch begins to matter more, and we're going to focus on three starting pitchers in the prop market this Saturday.
Let's dive into my trio of MLB player props for Saturday, September 14.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props on Saturday, Sept. 14
- Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110, DraftKings)
- Tyler Anderson Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+140, bet365)
- Logan Gilbert Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Dodgers vs Braves Player Props: Expect Jack Flaherty to Feast
Jack Flaherty was one of the biggest trade deadline acquisitions across the league. He's revitalized his career in a dominant fashion this season. Flaherty has been overwhelming hitters and is producing a ton of strikeouts, as his strikeout rate is up over 8% from last season.
This evening, he'll toe the rubber against the Atlanta Braves. While the Atlanta Braves are a dangerous lineup in the thick of a wild card race, they have a fatal flaw.
The Braves swing and miss a ton. They have the second-lowest zone contact rate in baseball and the ninth-lowest chase contact rate. This has led them to have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties this season.
This is a matchup Flaherty should feast in, and we're getting a great price for him to do so. Flaherty has struck out at least seven batters in 60% of his starts this season, which puts the implied odds well in our favor.
Astros vs Angels Player Props: Tough Matchup for Tyler Anderson
Next, we turn our attention to one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, Tyler Anderson. On the surface, Anderson has had a tremendous season, pitching to a 3.50 ERA.
However, he's done so by working around a great deal of contact, and allowing contact to the Houston Astros will likely produce trouble. The Astros have the second-highest xBA in baseball as they put the ball in play with the best of them, and we should see them do so with more authority as their lineup is finally back to full strength.
The Astros are the perfect lineup to counteract Anderson, as he relies on generating soft contact and getting quick outs. We should see them create traffic and cash in on the runners that reach base, ultimately forcing Anderson to leave this one before the end of the sixth inning.
Rangers vs Mariners Player Props: Sell High on Logan Gilbert
Lastly, we head to Seattle, where this series has been highlighted by the rotation of the Texas Rangers. However, the Seattle Mariners will hand the ball to an ace of their own. Logan Gilbert has quietly turned into one of the top pitchers in the game. He comes into this outing with a 3.15 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the season.
He's been a tough puzzle to solve for hitters this season, but he's getting a bit too much love in the strikeout market tonight. Gilbert has shown his strikeout upside this season and has been consistent, averaging 6.6 strikeouts per start.
Although the Texas Rangers are not being given enough respect here with the line set at 7.5, they are 23rd in strikeout rate against righties and have the eighth-highest zone contact rate. They do chase a bit, but that's not Gilbert's game, given his excellent command.
We've seen Gilbert go under this total in 66% of his starts this season. Expect another under here, as the Rangers should pounce on balls in the zone.
