With games from afternoon through the night, Thursday is a great day to cash betting on baseball. Three players that I will be backing to help us accomplish that are Logan Webb, Willi Castro, and Jack Flaherty. Let’s dive into my MLB player props for Thursday, September 19.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Props for Thursday, Sept. 19
- Logan Webb Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160, DraftKings)
- Willi Castro Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110, DraftKings)
- Jack Flaherty to Record A Win (+110, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Giants vs Orioles Player Props: Logan Webb Flying Under the Radar
Logan Webb finished second in NL Cy Young Voting last season, but he still tends to stay under the radar. However, Webb has been one of the most consistent and dependable starters in the game over the last few years. Webb has had at least 3.1 WAR in each of the last four years and with that dependability often comes innings. Webb has pitched 192 innings in each of the last three innings and has the chance to reach 200 innings for the second consecutive year today.
Now, Webb is coming off a rough start last time out as he allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits in four innings. However, it was his second consecutive start against the Padres, which tends to favor the hitters. Still, Webb has pitched six innings in five of his last seven starts, 15 of his last 20, and 23 of 31 starts this season. The high hit rates are why I am interested despite the juice here.
Additionally, Webb has a solid matchup against a struggling Orioles team. Baltimore has lost three straight games and five of their last six games. In that span, it has scored three runs or less in five of their last six games. Webb has 19 quality starts this season and if he holds Balitmore to three runs or less, he will rack up another. If that is case, he will also pitch at least six innings once again.
Twins vs Guardians Player Props: Willi Castro's Hot Streak Continues
Over the last week, Willi Castro has hit in five different spots in the Twins lineup. However, that has not stopped him from hitting. Castro enters today's game with a seven-game hitting streak. In that span, he is hitting .364 with six runs scored, with a home run, and five runs batted in.
Today, Castro will face Guardians rookie Joey Cantillo, who has allowed just 1 earned over his last two starts. However, he still has a 4.99 ERA on the year. He also allowed three earned runs on two home runs while striking out just two in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against Minnesota this season.
Castro is batting ninth today, which may cost him an at-bat today, but it also could work to our advantage. Castro may still get the opportunity to lead off a couple of innings. If he gets on with a hit, the top of the Twins' lineup will be able to knock him in. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana have combined for 10 RBI over the last week.
Dodgers vs Marlins Player Props: Bet on Jack Flaherty
In the first two games in Miami, the Dodgers have scored 17 runs. They could not take advantage on Tuesday after another disastrous start by Bobby Miller in a 11-9 loss. Last night, they got five scoreless innings from Landon Knack and they cruised to an 8-4 victory yesterday. Today, the Dodgers will face Edward Cabrera, who has a 4.55 ERA and 44 walks in 89 innings. The Dodgers rank second in walk rate against right-handed pitchers.
If the Dodgers generate the traffic that I am expecting against Cabrera, they will provide run support for Jack Flaherty and that should be enough to qualify him for a win. If the playoffs started today, Flaherty may be the Dodgers Game 1 starter for the NLDS. Since being acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline, Flaherty is 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings.
We are also getting value on multiple fronts here. By earning a win in five of his eight starts as a Dodger, we are getting plus odds for a line with 62.5% hit rate recently. Additionally, the Dodgers are -225 on the moneyline to win today's game. Flaherty has pitched five innings in seven of his eight starts with the Dodgers and into the sixth inning in six of them. If that happens again today, I expect him to earn his sixth win as a Dodger and 13th on the year.
