We went 3-3 this past weekend, avoiding any real damage. So, it's the perfect time to start a new hot streak. I've got three starting pitchers who are bound for success tonight. Read below for my MLB player props for Monday, Sept. 16.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props: Monday, Sept. 16
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+148, FanDuel)
- Merrill Kelly Under 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150, bet365)
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Dodgers vs Braves Player Props: Extended Leash for Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's stuff is what made him such a prized free agent this offseason, and he has proven to be a tough task for major league hitters this season. Yamamoto has recorded at least six strikeouts in 10 of his 15 starts this season, including his last start, where he struck out eight of the 15 batters he faced.
Tonight, he gets a tremendous matchup against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are very prone to striking out as they have the third-lowest zone contact rate and the eighth-lowest chase contact rate. Those poor contact rate metrics have resulted in the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Yamamoto is expected to be out there longer today, as this is his second start off the IL, so we should see him have an opportunity to go over this alternate total. However, as we've seen, he can go over this number in as little as four innings of work.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Player Props: Great Matchup for Merrill Kelly
Next, we head to Colorado, where Merrill Kelly will get the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening. Kelly has had mixed results since returning from injuries, but a closer look reveals he should be in for some positive regression.
Kelly's FIP entering this start is unsightly at 5.27, but his SIERA and xFIP are much lower at 4.71 and 4.51, respectively. He's due for some more luck on the high amount of balls that have been put in play against him.
Additionally, he has a great matchup with the Rockies. Colorado ranks 29th in wRC+ and has the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year.
This is the matchup for Kelly to get right in, as he's been better at limiting the damage on the scoreboard than his numbers show. Kelly has allowed three runs or less in seven of his 10 starts this season.
Astros vs Padres Player Props: Buy Low on Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti figured it out in August as he held a 1.95 ERA in five starts, and then he showed that he could bounce back in his last start after getting rocked by the Reds to open the month of September. He is ready to face the San Diego Padres, which have been the best lineup in baseball this season.
The Padres are a very tough assignment as they have the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball while also ranking second in wRC+ against righties. However, these numbers often over-deflate opposing pitchers' strikeout props.
It has happened again tonight with Arrighetti. Arrightetti has gone over his total of 4.5 in 73 percent of starts this year, including eight of his last 10 starts. He is a strikeout pitcher, as his strikeout rate ranks in the 82nd percentile as well.
With Arrighetti expected to throw six innings tonight, he won't even need an average performance for him to surpass this number. Buy the Padres' dip and back Arrighetti tonight.
