The weekend is almost here, and many great series are set to begin this Friday.
However, we're looking to start the weekend with a bang, and our top MLB player props will help us do just that.
So, let's dive in and meet the three men on the mound that will build our bankroll.
MLB Player Props Friday
- Javier Assad Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
- Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 at bet365)
- Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160 at bet365)
Javier Assad has proven that he can bolster the backend of the Cubs' rotation thus far, entering this start with a sparkling 1.66 ERA.
Assad makes his living by generating soft contact, but this season, his stuff has improved, and the strikeouts are beginning to rack up.
Despite only throwing it to righties, Assad's real weapon has been his slider. It has two more inches of break than last season and a whiff rate of 30%.
While the Pirates will have their fair share of lefties in the order, Assad will be able to wipe out the right-handers. It's not like the Pirates' lefties don't strike out a ton, either. After all, Pittsburgh does come into this matchup with the sixth-highest team strikeout rate.
Assad's improved arsenal has allowed him to go over this total in four of his seven starts. Two of the four overs have come against the two teams with the highest strikeout rates in the majors, and the other two came against two clubs that boast the lowest team strikeout rates.
So, with such a good matchup, we should see Assad get over this number once again.
Pick: Javier Assad Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
We go from a new kid on the block to a crafty veteran in Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons, and this year has been no exception.
The 34-year-old lefty enters with a 6.45 ERA and the lowest strikeout rate of his career. He's been unable to miss bats the last two seasons, and that makes him a fade candidate, even in a plus matchup like the one he has today.
Boston has been overachieving, but Corbin is not the guy to induce its regression. Since 2022, he's gone under this total in 64% of his starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -178, which indicates tremendous line value at the current price. It also helps that this is one of the best plays you can make, according to our Action Labs projections.
With Corbin slated for just 3.9 strikeouts tonight, this under has to be on your card.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Lastly, we head out to San Diego, where the Los Angeles Dodgers will be handing the ball to Tyler Glasnow.
Glasnow has proven that he can be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, entering this outing with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and a strikeout rate in the 91st percentile.
He's looked untouchable at times this season and is being disrespected by the oddsmakers here. Yes, the Padres hold the fifth-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors, but this total is far too low for someone of Glasnow's caliber.
Glasnow has exceeded this total in 79% of his starts since 2022, 26-of-33, which is about a full season's worth of data.
His rate gives us implied odds of -375 that he'll go over this number tonight. So, the juice is definitely worth the squeeze here.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
