The 2023 MLB playoffs didn't featured many tight series or competitive matchups in the first two rounds, but both League Championship Series matchups tightened significantly on Thursday.
The Diamondbacks beat the Phillies 2-1 in Game 3 to essentially stay alive in the series as both clubs turn to bullpen games for Game 4.
The Astros smashed the Rangers 10-3 in Game 4 to even the ALCS and reset the rotations for the pivotal Game 5 on Friday afternoon.
The Phillies remain clear favorites to win the NLCS up 2-1 and favored in Game 4, but the Astros have reclaimed their spot as small favorites to advance to the World Series.
Jordan Montgomery and Justin Verlander dueled once on Sunday and now will look to do so again on Friday.
Here are my favorite pitcher props for the LCS games on Friday.
Astros vs Rangers Game 5
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -115o / -105u | -106 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 9 -115o / -105u | -110 |
Justin Verlander (RHP) vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP)
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander didn't manage a single whiff on his four-seam fastball in his Game 1 start against the Rangers. When you combine that with the Rangers elite plate discipline, it's a recipe for a lot of deep counts and potential walks in Game 5 in Texas.
Texas chased pitches outside of the zone at a bottom-four rate during the regular season and the lineup is only further improved with Evan Carter's elite eye now in the heart of the order.
Verlander had three walks against the Twins and two more against the Rangers in Game 1. When he can spam fastballs at the top of the zone and generate whiffs, his plus command helps him avoid the walks. But as his stuff has declined, he's had to throw fewer fastballs to generate outs and misses.
As a result of the increased off speed usage, his command has wavered a bit. Verlander's walk rate sat below 5% each of the last four seasons he pitched. This year, it spiked to 6.7%.
His first-pitch strike rate dropped 5% year over year and his swinging strike rate dipped below 10% for the first time since 2014 too.
When you consider that Marvin Hudson as a really tight strike zone (12% walk boost) traditionally, I like Verlander to walk multiple batters.
Verdict: Bet Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-130 via Caesars)
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Jordan Montgomery
The Astros had no answers for Jordan Montgomery in Game 1, as he has now posted five consecutive solid starts including the end of the regular season. Most impressively was how Montgomery managed his at-bats against Yordan Alvarez, who was 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against the lefty.
It came out later that Alvarez had the flu, but that shouldn't detract from Montgomery's approach. Alvarez commented that Montgomery's curveball looks like a fastball, and the question is whether Montgomery can continue to fool these hitters.
We're at the ceiling of what Montgomery is as a pitcher right now. I'd lean under on his pitching outs because this is a desperation game for both clubs with relatively rested bullpens. But Bruce Bochy has shown a willingness to trust his five guys on the staff he trusts right now.
Bochy might leave him in a little too long, so the 16.5 outs is properly priced for me.
Verdict: Pass
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 4
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Cristopher Sanchez (LHP) vs. Joe Mantiply (LHP)
Cristopher Sanchez
The Phillies aren't officially going with a bullpen game in Game 4, but that's essentially the plan for Rob Thomson.
Cristopher Sanchez will start the contest, but I think there's a hard cap on how far Thomson trusts him to go in this game. Because of the Phillies' bullpen depth, I expect to see Michael Lorenzen and Matt Strahm fill those early innings behind Sanchez to bridge the gap to the stable of high-leverage options behind them.
Ranger Suarez had a ton of success with his changeup from the left side against the Arizona hitters in Game 3. Sanchez will look to replicate that success.
Unlike Suarez, Sanchez hasn't yet earned the full trust of the Phillies though. They won't want the same Diamondbacks hitters to get multiple looks at the changeup, and they are acutely aware of Sanchez's alarming HR/9 rates and the impact that one big homer can have on a playoff game.
As a result of this, I'm projecting Sanchez for 11 hitters. He'll face Corbin Carroll twice for the left on left matchup, but Thomson will aggressively avoid letting Gabriel Moreno, Tommy Pham and Christian Walker see Sanchez multiple times in the middle of the order.
He'll likely have a right-hander waiting in the second, third or fourth inning, whenever that spot comes.
Because of the limited usage for Sanchez, I'm betting under 4.5 hits allowed at Caesars. The leash will be short for Sanchez in this pivotal Game 4.
Thomson knows he has Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola waiting for the next two games, so it's time for him to stretch his bullpen.
Verdict: Bet Cristopher Sánchez Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-165 via Caesars)
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Joe Mantiply
With no props available for Arizona opener Joe Mantiply, who is expected to face four hitters, the Sánchez hits prop is my only bet for Game 4 of the NLCS.
Verdict: Pass
