There may be no better pastime than afternoon baseball, and with that I have three MLB player props for Chris Sale, Griffin Canning and Michael Wacha on Wednesday, August 28. Find my strikeout prop picks for that trio below.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props & Wednesday Picks
- Michael Wacha Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+132, bet365)
- Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120, bet365)
- Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+128, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Royals vs Guardians Player Props: Bet On High Usage
Wednesday afternoon's matchup presents an exciting spot for Michael Wacha.
The Royals pitching staff has been taxed this week with the double-header on Monday and Michael Lorenzen leaving in the second inning last night.
Wacha will need to eat up some innings this afternoon, and the market is heavily favoring him to throw six. That allows us to exploit his strikeout prop, as he'll have a larger window to record them.
Recording them against the Cleveland Guardians is no easy task; they come into this matchup with the third-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
However, the matchup has brought Wacha's total down too low.
He has surpassed this mark in 57% of his 23 starts this season, including a six-strikeout performance against the Guardians on June 27.
Given the near-guaranteed length and Wacha's positive history, this is the perfect spot to be on his over at plus-money.
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Angels vs Tigers Player Props: Rough Running For Canning
It has been a rough season for Angels' starter Griffin Canning.
Canning enters this outing with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. What's worse is that there are few signs of improvement, making him a fade candidate tonight against the Detroit Tigers.
As I've hammered home each of the last few weeks, the Tigers are a deceiving lineup. Their contact metrics do not match their strikeout totals. Essentially, they are a lineup due for positive strikeout regression, and going up against a starter like Canning is the spot we should see that.
Canning is not a pitcher who will miss many bats, and that has gotten him in trouble this year. Among qualified pitchers, Canning ranks in the 19th percentile in CSW rate and 13th percentile in strikeouts per inning.
Additionally, the amount of traffic he's dealt with has shortened his outings. The market expects another brief appearance from him as he's favored to go only five innings.
We know how low his strikeout per inning rate is, so the probability that he outperforms it in this matchup is much more unlikely than the odds for his strikeout under are portraying.
- Check out our MLB Props page for more MLB player prop action
Braves vs Twins Player Props: The Cy Young Favorite To Bet
Lastly, we turn to the current NL Cy Young favorite, Chris Sale.
Sale's career resurgence in Atlanta has been remarkable. He's been as dominant as ever.
He has consistently overwhelmed hitters with velocity and his wipeout slider, leading to many strikeouts. Sale has been one of the most consistent sources of strikeouts in baseball.
He'll battle a Twins lineup that may have decent strikeout rates on paper, ranking 20th against lefties on the season, but they have a fatal flaw. The Twins rank 13th in chase rate and 22nd in chase contact rate.
We saw it on Tuesday when Spencer Schwellenbach exploited the Twins with eight strikeouts. Minnesota has to turn around and face Sale, who ranks in the 95th percentile among qualified pitchers in chase rate.
The matchup is deceiving, and that's giving us excellent odds. Sale has recorded at least eight strikeouts in 58% of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -138.
Take the value here. And don't be afraid to climb the ladder with Sale, either.
