It's a new week, so we get a fresh baseball slate this Monday.
I'm targeting three starting pitchers with value in the MLB player prop market, including one in Padres vs. White Sox.
So, let's dive in and see who and how we are betting on our top MLB player props for Monday, April 22nd.
MLB Player Props & Picks Monday (April 22)
We start early as Carlos Rodon will take the ball this afternoon against the Oakland A's.
Metric-wise, Rodon's stuff is as good as we've seen it while he's been in pinstripes, but the results are not there.
Rodon came to the Yankees after posting a strikeout rate north of 34% over the past two seasons. However, injuries have kept him from returning to top-notch form since 2022.
This year, his strikeout rate is at its lowest since 2020, and even in the best possible matchup to rack up strikeouts, Rodon is worth fading as he has not proven he can surpass this total.
Rodon has only eclipsed this total twice in his 18 starts in New York. That hit rate puts the odds in our favor, but the sample size is much smaller than what we typically have for these plays.
Overall, this is a prove-it play, as Rodon will need to turn back the clock even in a great matchup to get over this number.
So take the plus-money price with confidence.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130)
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Arizona Diamondback starter Brandon Pfaadt bounced back nicely in his last outing, throwing seven innings of two-run ball while striking out seven Cubs. This came after he allowed 11 earned runs over his two previous starts.
Tonight, he'll face one of the teams that tagged him again.
Ten days ago, the St. Louis Cardinals scored six runs on seven hits in six innings against Pfaadt, striking out only four times. Putting the ball in play is critical against Pfaadt, and the Cardinals are good for that, as their rank of 14th in team strikeout rate is deceiving.
Just three regular hitters in the Cardinals' lineup have above-average strikeout rates. They are also some of their better bats, so if they don't whiff, they can do damage.
In addition to the matchup, Pfaadt has only exceeded this number in half of his 22 career starts. So we don't have a big edge in line value, but with the Cardinals due for positive regression in the strikeout department, the matchup factors into the price more heavily.
Lastly, Action Labs loves this under, projecting Pfaadt for 4.6 strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
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Our last stop tonight will be Coors Field, and while the stadium is known to be hitter-friendly, the Rockies have struggled mightily thus far. The Rockies have one of the least threatening lineups in baseball, ranking among the bottom three teams in xBA and xSLG.
That means any production they've shown will worsen, and San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease should be responsible for much of that.
Cease looks revitalized since down the mustard and brown as he holds a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through his first four starts as a Padre.
Tonight, he is primed to carve up this feeble Rockies lineup. We've seen Cease give six quality innings in three of his first four starts this year, and given the ample run support expected, it's very likely he will go six again.
Projection-wise, Cease is tied for the highest probability at Ballpark Pal to go six innings tonight.
With his past success and the best matchup in front of him tonight, you have to agree with that notion.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130)
