We bounced back big yesterday, sweeping the board. Now, we are primed to carry that momentum into the new month.
So, with that said, let's dive into our MLB player props for Monday, July 1 — featuring picks and predictions for MacKenzie Gore, Bryse Wilson, Austin Gomber.
MLB Player Props: Monday, July 1
- MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165, bet365)
- Bryse Wilson Under 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
- Austin Gomber Over 15.5 Outs (-105, bet365)
MacKenzie Gore has finally broken out this season for the Washington Nationals. The former top pitching prospect has a 3.60 ERA through 16 starts this season and holds a strikeout rate in the 78th percentile.
However, the young left-hander is due for a big regression, and we should see some of that tonight against the New York Mets. The Mets are red-hot and have been crushing lefties all season.
They come into this matchup as the No. 1 team in wRC+ and OBP against lefties over their last 30 games. On top of that, the Mets do not strike out much, as they rank 25th in strikeout rate against lefties.
With a tough matchup in front of him and regression looming, it's likely we will see Gore's strikeout total dip in this matchup.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Next, we head to Coors Field, where it's risky to back any type of pitcher's success. However, The hitter's environment also inflates many pitchers' totals, as is the case with Milwaukee Brewers starter Bryse Wilson.
Wilson has had varied amounts of success this season, but the one thing he's been excellent at in his nine starts is limiting damage. Wilson has only given up more than three earned runs in two of his nine starts.
That hit rate clearly brings the odds in favor, but Wilson also profiles well for success at Coors Field. While his contract and groundball rates are not fantastic, he is above average in barrel rate allowed and is elite when it comes to line drive late against him.
Those statistics show he is due for more soft contact and should come against this Colorado lineup that ranks 29th in wRC+ and 28th in walk rate against righties.
So, back Wilson to deliver another quality outing.
Pick: Bryse Wilson Under 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)
We are staying in the same game for our last selection, but now we will turn our attention to Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber. Gomber is not a fun guy to back as he allows a ton of contact, and the majority of it is hard, but he's done one thing well this season, and that is record-outs.
Gomber has recorded an out in the sixth inning in 60% of his starts this season, which includes four of the six starts he has made at home. While his high contact rate puts him at risk for runs allowed, it also allows him to work efficiently, as balls will find fielders more often than not.
So, while this may be a pick that you watch by peeking through your fingers while covering your eyes, the numbers are in our favor, and Gomber should get us to the window.
Pick: Austin Gomber Over 15.5 Outs (-105)
